Last updated Nov. 30, 2009

Since our launch of the recovery index in early June , we’ve tracked six key indicators. First interest rate spreads, then existing home sales, and now jobless claims have moved into positive territory — and we are judging the recession over. But, a patchy recovery lies ahead. Read more of our analysis here.

WHAT IT IS: A gauge of how consumers feel about the economy and their personal finances The most widely cited index, from The Conference Board, is released on the last Tuesday of each month.

WHY IT MATTERS: When consumers are worried about the future, they hunker down and spend less.

WATCH FOR: An index rising into the 60s would suggest that consumers will be less tightfisted.

WHAT IT IS: A tally of the value of goods purchased from more than three million U.S. retail sellers, reported on or about the 13th of each month.

WHY IT MATTERS: Consumer spending accounts for about 70% of the U.S. economy. Retail sales are about half of that.

WATCH FOR: Three straight months of increased sales would provide convincing evidence that consumers have more money in their pockets and are willing to spend it.

WHAT IT IS: A monthly report on new orders for long-lasting manufactured goods (think household appliances, machinery, and so on), released toward the end of each month.

WHY IT MATTERS: Business executives commit to purchases of these big-ticket items if they anticipate increased demand.

WATCH FOR: A three-month uptrend in orders -- excluding defense, aircraft and other transportation equipment -- would presage an expanding economy.