How Much Would Social Security's 2033 Shortfall Cost You?

Social Security question with economic news headlines

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The health and stability of the Social Security system are on the minds of Americans who are close to and in retirement. More than half of Americans who aren’t yet retired lack confidence that they'll have the same Social Security benefits as current retirees, according to a recent study from the National Institute for Retirement Security (NIRS).

Just 31% of Gen Xers and 28% of women are very confident they’ll have the same benefits as current retirees, the study showed, while 52% of boomers and 49% of men were very or somewhat confident that they would have the same benefits as previous generations.

Is there a real reason to worry that future Social Security benefits could be reduced? Unfortunately, the answer is yes. There is a shrinking window of opportunity to shore up the Social Security trust fund; in 2033, 8 years from now, the trust will be insolvent and unable to pay full benefits by 2035. At that point, if nothing else is done, the program could pay about 77% of scheduled benefits, mostly out of workers’ ongoing contributions.

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Let's be clear about one thing: Social Security is not going bankrupt and will not stop paying benefits. The majority of benefits are paid with current contributions to the trust fund. Unless people stop paying their employment taxes, we will have income to fund benefits. At worst, we face reduced benefits with beneficiaries receiving only 77% of their full benefit. The average retiree received $2006.69 in July, and a 23% cut would translate into losing almost $461.54 per month, or $5,538.46 per year.

How much more do we need to save to cover the possible reduction in benefits? Well, almost $150,000. Let's break that down and see how much you'll need to sock away, based on your age, which will dictate your saving timeline.

100 dollar pill puzzle being put together

How much more you need to save

As the Social Security trust fund moves closer to insolvency with no solutions on the horizon, it's time to take a look at how much more you need to save monthly and annually to cover any reduction in benefits.

Romi Savova, Founder and CEO of PensionBee, told Kiplinger, "projected insolvency is not hypothetical. Congress will need to act, and making this a policy priority today will give Americans more time to plan."

Fortunately, the people at Pension Bee crunched the numbers and concluded that workers would need to save an additional $138,000 in additional savings to generate the same income, based on the 4% rule withdrawal rule.

This will be critical, as the median retirement savings for all families is $87,000, according to the Federal Reserve's Survey of Consumer Finances.

Pension Bee used the following assumptions when it calculated how much more you'll need to save to make up for possible cuts to Social Security benefits:

You are retiring at age 67 (the full retirement age (FRA) for anyone born in 1960 or after)
You will withdraw 4% of retirement savings a year
Investments generate an assumed 5% rate of return without inflation

Now, it's time to take a close look at how much more you will need to save monthly and annually to have a big enough nest egg to weather a reduction in Social Security benefits.

The 2025 Social Security Trustees Report showed that the situation for the trust fund is more dire than the year before. Now, the insolvency date is coming even sooner in 2033. The new estimated depletion date moved up three calendar quarters to the first quarter of 2033. If this comes to pass, benefits would face a 23% cut, and beneficiaries would then receive 77% of their benefits.

The older you are, the more you'll need to put away; those age 55 only have a 12-year window to save and will need to put away an additional $701 a month. Older workers "would need to save roughly 9x as much as the youngest," according to PensionBee. As you can see from the chart below, the earlier you start, the less you'll have to sock away monthly to accumulate that 'just-in-case' financial buffer.

"The accelerated insolvency timeline means Americans have even less time to prepare for what's coming,” said PensionBee's Savova. “While we can't control Congressional action, we can control our response."

Swipe to scroll horizontally

Estimated additional savings needed by age to offset a 23% benefit cut in 2035
Starting Age	Saving Timeline	Amount Lost	Monthly Savings Target	Annual Savings Target
55 Years	12 Years	$138,000	$701	$8,416
45 Years	22 Years	$138,000	$288	$3,455
35 Years	32 Years	$138,000	$146	$1,753
25 Years	42 Years	$138,000	$81	$967

What can you do now to save that additional $138,000?

Max out your retirement contributions. Especially catch-up contributions for those over 50 and super catch-up limits for those 60 and over
Leverage employer match programs. Don't leave any money on the table. Soak up the full employer match to plump up your 401(k)s and use auto-escalation tools to gradually increase contributions over time and bump up your contribution percentage when you get a pay raise.
Consolidate your investment and retirement accounts. Fewer accounts will make it easier to track your progress and reduce the fees you pay.
Diversify investments. Managing risk is part of growing and protecting your savings.

Two silhouetted figures stand on opposite sides of a broken speech bubble, symbolizing a dialogue that has been fractured. The bright blue background adds contrast and tension, emphasizing the gap between the individuals and their inability to bridge the divide.

If you are wondering the level of concern people are feeling, the results of a recent study say it all — more Americans (64%) are scared of running out of money in retirement than they are of dying, according to the 2025 Annual Retirement Study from the Allianz Center for the Future of Retirement. Those feeling have been bolstered by action, as more Americans decide to file for Social Security benefits earlier than planned.

That may be why a majority of Americans, in every category surveyed, want Congress to take action and not wait any longer to do something to address the looming trust fund insolvency. When the NIRS posed the question "To what extent do you agree or disagree that Congress should act now to shore up Social Security funding rather than waiting another 10 years," it was a chorus of agreement across demographic groups:

By sex: men 86%, women 86%
Political affiliation: Democrats 88%, Republicans 86%, Independents 88%
By generation: Boomers 93%, Generation X 88%, Millennials 82%
By annual income: Less than $35k was 89%, between $35 and $74k was 86%, and more than $75k was 88%

The biggest divide was among generations. It's not surprising that those closest to retirement want to see the Social Security trust fund issues dealt with sooner rather than later. The overall unity in wanting to see action may finally spur some action.

Donna joined Kiplinger as a personal finance writer in 2023. She spent more than a decade as the contributing editor of J.K.Lasser's Your Income Tax Guide and edited state specific legal treatises at ALM Media. She has shared her expertise as a guest on Bloomberg, CNN, Fox, NPR, CNBC and many other media outlets around the nation. She is a graduate of Brooklyn Law School and the University at Buffalo.