First-Time Jobless Claims Drop Again

published 30 March 2017

The number of first-time filers for unemployment benefits remains at multi-decade lows, the Department of Labor said Thursday. The number of newly unemployed workers for the week ended March 30 came to 258,000, a decrease of 3,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 261,000. The 4-week moving average was 254,250. Weekly initial jobless claims are tracking at levels last seen in 1973, according to the Federal Reserve.

The continued dip in unemployment claims jibes with other readings of the Labor market. The most recent monthly payrolls report from the Labor Department revealed that most industries added jobs in February, with strong growth in health care, private education, business services, food services and construction. The mining and manufacturing sectors also strengthened. Retail showed weakness, but that followed a robust January.

The unemployment rate, which is derived from a separate survey, edged down to 4.7%. The number of long-term unemployed folks declined, and the number of those working part-time who wanted to work full-time fell as well.

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Kiplinger’s economic outlook expects the job market to continue to tighten this year as demand for skilled workers exceeds their availability. Employment growth in 2017 should slow to an average of 180,000 jobs per month, from 187,000 per month in 2016, but the unemployment rate will edge down further to 4.5%. The four-week average of initial unemployment claims is still near its lowest level since 1973, limiting the additions from this source to the ranks of the unemployed.

Wage gains for nonsupervisory workers stayed at a 2.4% growth rate in January. Nonsupervisory workers comprise four-fifths of the workforce, and their wage gains are more likely to be reflected in prices and consumer spending. Adding in supervisors and executives, hourly earnings picked up to a 2.8% rate.

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Dan Burrows is Kiplinger's senior investing writer, having joined the august publication full time in 2016.

A long-time financial journalist, Dan is a veteran of MarketWatch, CBS MoneyWatch, SmartMoney, InvestorPlace, DailyFinance and other tier 1 national publications. He has written for The Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg and Consumer Reports and his stories have appeared in the New York Daily News, the San Jose Mercury News and Investor's Business Daily, among many other outlets. As a senior writer at AOL's DailyFinance, Dan reported market news from the floor of the New York Stock Exchange.

Once upon a time – before his days as a financial reporter and assistant financial editor at legendary fashion trade paper Women's Wear Daily – Dan worked for Spy magazine, scribbled away at Time Inc. and contributed to Maxim magazine back when lad mags were a thing. He's also written for Esquire magazine's Dubious Achievements Awards.

In his current role at Kiplinger, Dan writes about markets and macroeconomics.

Dan holds a bachelor's degree from Oberlin College and a master's degree from Columbia University.

Disclosure: Dan does not trade individual stocks or securities. He is eternally long the U.S equity market, primarily through tax-advantaged accounts.