The big loser in Rep. Michele Bachmann’s sudden rise as a Republican presidential contender? Former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty.
His bid to be the GOP’s top alternative to former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney hinges on winning the first-in-the-nation Iowa caucuses next January. Pawlenty won’t win the second contest -- the New Hampshire primary -- and probably can’t win the South Carolina primary without a strong boost from Iowa. Three losses in a row cripples any candidate in a crowded presidential field because voters and contributors are quick to take their support elsewhere. For a candidate such as Pawlenty, with a name that’s not well known in much of the country and a campaign that’s stuck in single digits in the polls, anything short of a win in Iowa probably represents a mortal blow.
Bachmann could deliver that blow to her fellow Minnesotan. Her conservative leanings, tea party backing and fiery personality make her a better fit with the Republicans most likely to participate in the Iowa caucuses than the more moderate, laid-back Pawlenty.
Sign up for Kiplinger’s Free E-Newsletters
Profit and prosper with the best of expert advice on investing, taxes, retirement, personal finance and more - straight to your e-mail.
Profit and prosper with the best of expert advice - straight to your e-mail.
But ruining Pawlenty’s presidential aspirations doesn’t necessarily mean Bachmann will end up as Romney’s main opponent for the Republican nomination. Beating expectations in one debate, as Bachmann did recently, does not make a candidate invincible. It does, though, move her into the top tier of GOP contenders hoping to thwart Romney from winning the right to challenge President Obama in November 2012. That says more, perhaps, about the unsettled nature of the race than it does about Bachmann.
How she does between now and next spring, when the GOP nominee will be chosen, depends on the answers to two big questions.
The first: Who else ends up running? If either former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin or Texas Gov. Rick Perry gets into the race, Bachmann’s stock could go down, since both appeal to the same staunch conservatives who find her an attractive candidate.
It still looks as though Palin will stay on the sidelines. She’s raking in a ton of money by giving speeches and making television appearances. And she can afford to bide her time, at least from the perspective of age. In 2016, when Democrats won’t have an automatic front-runner and the race will be wide open, Palin will be just 52 years old.
Perry, who replaced George W. Bush as governor after Bush was declared the winner of the 2000 presidential race, seems likely to throw his hat into the ring. He has the conservative credentials to rival Bachmann in Iowa and South Carolina, and a solid performance in those states, both with early primaries, could drive her from the race. But Perry is taking his time to decide, and his candidacy is not a certainty.
The second question that will help decide how well Bachmann does: Will most Republican primary voters follow their hearts (that is, vote for a true conservative), or will they settle for a candidate with the best chance to defeat Obama in the general election, even if that candidate isn’t as far to the right as GOP primary voters would prefer? This question will also be of major importance to Perry, Palin and former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum.
To spoil Obama’s bid for a second term, the Republican nominee must be able to appeal to independents and moderate Democrats while firing up the GOP base. At the moment, Romney seems to be the Republican who can make the strongest challenge. But the cloak of front-runner just barely fits him. If Republicans largely decide to vote based on conservative principles, Romney will be in for a long, expensive primary fight that will either send him packing or leave him bruised and strapped for cash for the general election showdown with Obama.
Time will tell if Bachmann has staying power. But even if she peaks too soon and the debate earlier this month was her brightest moment, it will have been precisely the wrong moment for Pawlenty. The debate was his chance to shine, too, but he chose instead to play nice guy. We all know where they finish.
-
Take Charge of Retirement Spending With This Simple StrategyTo make sure you're in control of retirement spending, rather than the other way around, allocate funds to just three purposes: income, protection and legacy.
-
Here's How To Get Organized And Work For YourselfWhether you’re looking for a side gig or planning to start your own business, it has never been easier to strike out on your own. Here is our guide to navigating working for yourself.
-
AI Regulation is Looming: Kiplinger Economic ForecastsEconomic Forecasts Find out what Washington and regulators have planned for artificial intelligence.
-
The Biden Tax Plan: How the Build Back Better Act Could Affect Your Tax BillPolitics Depending on your income, the Build Back Better Act recently passed by the House could boost or cut your future tax bills.
-
Kiplinger's 2020 Election ForecastPolitics For nearly a century, The Kiplinger Letter has forecasted the outcome of presidential elections to keep readers informed of what's coming and what it means for them. Here's our call for 2020.
-
The 2020 Election and Your MoneyPolitics We’ve assessed how the presidential candidates’ stances on financial issues will affect your wallet.
-
5 HEROES Act Provisions with a Good Chance of Becoming LawPolitics The massive federal stimulus bill just passed by the House of Representatives is "dead on arrival" in the Senate. But a few proposals in the bill have enough bipartisan support to eventually become law.
-
Vote by Mail: A State-by-State Guide to Absentee Ballot VotingPolitics With health authorities recommending people continue to social distance, the idea of voting by mail is becoming an increasingly hot topic.
-
9 Ways COVID-19 Will Change the 2020 ElectionsPolitics The 2020 election will be like no other in history, as the COVID-19 pandemic will upend the business of politics as usual.
-
How to Run for Local OfficePolitics If you’ve ever thought that you could do a better job than the elected officials currently in office, here’s how to launch a campaign—and win.
