There's no question that Republican prospects have improved remarkably in the last few months, and GOP leaders are now looking to make big gains in Congress in 2012. They hope to set the stage for that next month by winning the two governorships at stake. A sweep would be significant because President Obama won both states last year. In Virginia, a key bellwether, GOP candidate Bob McDonnell seems to have a comfortable lead over Democrat R. Creigh Deeds. And New Jersey is a toss-up, with Democratic incumbent Jon Corzine fighting for his life against challenger Chris Christie.
But there's another election next month that might not bode so well for Republicans.
It's a special election in New York's 23rd District to fill the seat vacated by Republican John McHugh, who was tapped by President Obama to be secretary of the Army. The 23rd District, a relatively rural area bordering Lake Champlain, Lake Ontario and the St. Lawrence Seaway, is an historically Republican district. McHugh was elected in 2006 with 63% of the vote and reelected in 2008 with 65%.
Sign up for Kiplinger’s Free E-Newsletters
Profit and prosper with the best of expert advice on investing, taxes, retirement, personal finance and more - straight to your e-mail.
Profit and prosper with the best of expert advice - straight to your e-mail.
But while the district has been dominated by the GOP, it has a lot of independents, who appreciated the fact that McHugh and his predecessor, six-term Rep. David O'Brien Martin, were among the dwindling core of moderate Republicans in Congress. To keep the seat, which should have been relatively easy, the GOP nominated Dede Scozzafava, an abortion rights moderate who could appeal to the many independents in the district.
She was doing well against Democrat Bill Owens until the more conservative wing of the party -- now often called the Tea Party activists -- denounced her selection and began pushing Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman. That's killing Scozzafava. In a recent Siena poll, Owens drew only 33% of the likely vote -- but that was enough to lead. Scozzafava had 29% while Hoffman had 23%, which clearly would go to Scozzafava if Hoffman weren't in the race. The GOP establishment is spending a lot of money on ads for Scozzafava, but the conservative Club for Growth is doing the same for Hoffman, with many of the ads attacking Scozzafava's record on economic and social issues. Conservatives say they are fired up and have intensity on their side, and they predict they'll soon overcome Owens. But that will be hard to pull off.
A Democratic victory in the 23rd won't get nearly as much attention as Republican victories in the two gubernatorial races, but it would still be a worrisome harbinger for the GOP. As the conservative wing gets more active and vocal, it makes it harder for the party to appeal to moderates, and Republicans will always be in the minority party if they can't expand their tent.
So come Nov. 3, don't just look to the governor races in New Jersey and Virginia. Smart Republicans will know that what happens in New York could be a sign of trouble as they try to take back the House and Senate.
-
Here's How To Get Organized And Work For YourselfWhether you’re looking for a side gig or planning to start your own business, it has never been easier to strike out on your own. Here is our guide to navigating working for yourself.
-
How to Manage Risk With Diversification"Don't put all your eggs in one basket" means different things to different investors. Here's how to manage your risk with portfolio diversification.
-
AI Regulation is Looming: Kiplinger Economic ForecastsEconomic Forecasts Find out what Washington and regulators have planned for artificial intelligence.
-
The Biden Tax Plan: How the Build Back Better Act Could Affect Your Tax BillPolitics Depending on your income, the Build Back Better Act recently passed by the House could boost or cut your future tax bills.
-
Kiplinger's 2020 Election ForecastPolitics For nearly a century, The Kiplinger Letter has forecasted the outcome of presidential elections to keep readers informed of what's coming and what it means for them. Here's our call for 2020.
-
The 2020 Election and Your MoneyPolitics We’ve assessed how the presidential candidates’ stances on financial issues will affect your wallet.
-
5 HEROES Act Provisions with a Good Chance of Becoming LawPolitics The massive federal stimulus bill just passed by the House of Representatives is "dead on arrival" in the Senate. But a few proposals in the bill have enough bipartisan support to eventually become law.
-
Vote by Mail: A State-by-State Guide to Absentee Ballot VotingPolitics With health authorities recommending people continue to social distance, the idea of voting by mail is becoming an increasingly hot topic.
-
9 Ways COVID-19 Will Change the 2020 ElectionsPolitics The 2020 election will be like no other in history, as the COVID-19 pandemic will upend the business of politics as usual.
-
How to Run for Local OfficePolitics If you’ve ever thought that you could do a better job than the elected officials currently in office, here’s how to launch a campaign—and win.
