A predictable dispute is breaking out over whether the legalization of gay marriage in Iowa and Vermont portends a dramatic shift in the battle. Gay rights forces certainly have plenty to cheer about, but are they right, as they like to argue, that same sex marriage in America is inevitable?
If they mean inevitable as in within a few decades, they may be right. But if they mean within a few years, they need to consider the slow pace in which political, judicial and public opinion tends to change.
While no one can dispute the importance of the changes in Iowa and Vermont, there is plenty of disagreement over the broader significance. Take polls on gay marriage and civil unions. They vary widely depending upon how questions are phrased and what, exactly, is being asked. But generally opponents of gay marriage out poll supporters by 10-15 percentage points -- 55%-39% in a Newsweek poll in December last year and 55%-44% in a CNN poll the same month, for example. But when asked whether gay couples should be granted civil unions that give them most of the same rights of a married couple, those numbers flip-flop, clearly a sign that the public is generally sympathetic to the rights of homosexual couples but queasy about same-sex marriage.
Sign up for Kiplinger’s Free E-Newsletters
Profit and prosper with the best of expert advice on investing, taxes, retirement, personal finance and more - straight to your e-mail.
Profit and prosper with the best of expert advice - straight to your e-mail.
Some opponents to gay marriage argue that the poll numbers have been essentially static for a number years and support for same-sex marriage is not growing. Gay rights advocates, encouraged by the feeling that the American comfort-zone on the issue is growing, don't seem concerned by that argument. They see a number of other factors, including the judicial system, on their side.It's worth noting that courts often are far ahead of the public on some issues. In 1967, the year that the Supreme Court struck down bans on interracial marriage, some 72% of Americans opposed mixed race marriages. It wasn't until 1991 that opponents of those marriages dropped into the minority.
That's a cheery statistic -- and a much cited one -- for backers of gay rights. But it does ignore a very salient fact: This Supreme Court today is far more conservative than the liberal Warren Court of the 1960s. For that reason and many other social, political and strategic factors, it may be a long time before the issue of gay marriage gets to -- and is accepted by -- the highest court in the land.
So what does "inevitable" mean in terms of time? Well, first, inevitable is a bad word when it comes to politics and public opinion -- attitudes shift and weave over time and can go down as well as up. Remember, support for same sex marriage dropped (read comments of Pew Research Center's Scott Keeter) after the Masachusetts Supreme Court cleared the way in 2003 for it to became the first state in the country to permit them.
More than any other factor, the real determinant could be demographics. Nate Silver, a polling expert who runs the astute blog www.fivethirtyeight.com (and who argues with careful numbers that support for gay marriage and civil unions is growing, but slowly), points out an important characteristic of most polling on the issue: Support for gay marriage and opposition to it is generational. He cites a CBS news poll in March that shows 64% of voters aged 18-45 supported either gay marriage or civil unions, but only 45 percent of voters aged 65 and up did. From there, the math is easy, at least for Silver: "Civil unions have already achieved the support of an outright majority of Americans, and as those older voters are replaced by younger ones, the smart money is that gay marriage will reach majority status too at some point in the 2010s."
-
Trump Picks Dr. Oz as Head of Medicare and MedicaidPresident-elect Donald Trump picked Dr. Mehmet Oz to lead the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services. Here's what to know about the former TV host.
-
What's Next for MicroStrategy Stock as Bitcoin Nears $100K?MicroStrategy stock is up more than fivefold in 2024 thanks to a furious rally in bitcoin. Here's what you need to know.
-
AI Regulation is Looming: Kiplinger Economic ForecastsEconomic Forecasts Find out what Washington and regulators have planned for artificial intelligence.
-
The Biden Tax Plan: How the Build Back Better Act Could Affect Your Tax BillPolitics Depending on your income, the Build Back Better Act recently passed by the House could boost or cut your future tax bills.
-
Kiplinger's 2020 Election ForecastPolitics For nearly a century, The Kiplinger Letter has forecasted the outcome of presidential elections to keep readers informed of what's coming and what it means for them. Here's our call for 2020.
-
The 2020 Election and Your MoneyPolitics We’ve assessed how the presidential candidates’ stances on financial issues will affect your wallet.
-
5 HEROES Act Provisions with a Good Chance of Becoming LawPolitics The massive federal stimulus bill just passed by the House of Representatives is "dead on arrival" in the Senate. But a few proposals in the bill have enough bipartisan support to eventually become law.
-
Vote by Mail: A State-by-State Guide to Absentee Ballot VotingPolitics With health authorities recommending people continue to social distance, the idea of voting by mail is becoming an increasingly hot topic.
-
9 Ways COVID-19 Will Change the 2020 ElectionsPolitics The 2020 election will be like no other in history, as the COVID-19 pandemic will upend the business of politics as usual.
-
How to Run for Local OfficePolitics If you’ve ever thought that you could do a better job than the elected officials currently in office, here’s how to launch a campaign—and win.
