Republicans have been quick to point to the BP oil spill, already the worst environmental disaster in U.S. history, as Obama’s Katrina. They’d like nothing more than to get revenge for the drubbing President Bush took for his lack of action and empathy with the victims of the hurricane that devastated New Orleans and much of the Gulf region and crippled the rest of his presidency. The White House is worried about that happening and doing everything it can to learn the lessons of Katrina and prevent a rerun.
But to me, watching the devastation in the Gulf of Mexico and Obama’s helpless response brings back more memories of Jimmy Carter and the Iran hostage crisis. As one who had a close-up view of that long-running event (I was a junior reporter covering the State Department when an Iranian mob took 52 U.S. hostages on Nov. 4, 1979, and held most of them for 444 days), I vividly remember the television logos adding up the days (then a relatively new innovation) thereby capturing the public’s concern and growing dissatisfaction.
Although it was a different kind of crisis, the similarities are stark and instructive. At first, it was judged an event that no one in government could have prevented. That gradually changed as questions emerged about why Washington didn’t have a better handle on the risks. No one had a ready solution for fixing the problem, but with each passing day, people wondered why the president and his aides couldn’t come up with an answer. Instead of accepting that the government was powerless, people got angry. They hated feeling the U.S. was too weak; they wanted and expected the government to make it go away. Finger-pointing followed, and eventually Carter launched a rescue mission against the odds. It failed, with U.S. helicopters crashing into each other, adding significantly to the notion that the Carter government was simply incompetent.
Sign up for Kiplinger’s Free E-Newsletters
Profit and prosper with the best of expert advice on investing, taxes, retirement, personal finance and more - straight to your e-mail.
Profit and prosper with the best of expert advice - straight to your e-mail.
I see all of that happening again, and I’m reminded of the hopeless feelings of 1979 every time another BP effort fails or another TV logo shows the count of days or the gallons of oil spilled. Even with the benefit of time (almost 31 years), I don’t know that anyone has come up with an answer for what Carter should or could have done differently, other than to prevent it from happening in the first place. That also seems the case with the BP spill.
The hostage crisis ultimately cost Carter a second term, being the biggest of several reasons why the American public welcomed Ronald Reagan to the White House in 1980. It also colored everything Carter did in his last year in office.
So far, surprisingly, the polls are inconclusive on the whether the spill is hurting Obama, or at least that’s the nuanced conclusion of Nate Silver, one of the few analysts who really understands how to use polls. Obama, of course, is getting plenty of criticism, but it’s largely coming from those who didn’t like him before the spill. As always, independents hold the key to Obama’s reelection hopes, and his response and the success or failure of the cleanup could have a decisive effect. In the meantime, key Democratic and Republican strategists might find it useful to take another look at the Carter case.
-
Stock Market Today: Stocks End Higher in Whipsaw SessionThe main indexes were volatile Thursday with Nvidia earnings in focus.
-
Trump Picks Dr. Oz as Head of Medicare and MedicaidPresident-elect Donald Trump picked Dr. Mehmet Oz to lead the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services. Here's what to know about the former TV host.
-
AI Regulation is Looming: Kiplinger Economic ForecastsEconomic Forecasts Find out what Washington and regulators have planned for artificial intelligence.
-
The Biden Tax Plan: How the Build Back Better Act Could Affect Your Tax BillPolitics Depending on your income, the Build Back Better Act recently passed by the House could boost or cut your future tax bills.
-
Kiplinger's 2020 Election ForecastPolitics For nearly a century, The Kiplinger Letter has forecasted the outcome of presidential elections to keep readers informed of what's coming and what it means for them. Here's our call for 2020.
-
The 2020 Election and Your MoneyPolitics We’ve assessed how the presidential candidates’ stances on financial issues will affect your wallet.
-
5 HEROES Act Provisions with a Good Chance of Becoming LawPolitics The massive federal stimulus bill just passed by the House of Representatives is "dead on arrival" in the Senate. But a few proposals in the bill have enough bipartisan support to eventually become law.
-
Vote by Mail: A State-by-State Guide to Absentee Ballot VotingPolitics With health authorities recommending people continue to social distance, the idea of voting by mail is becoming an increasingly hot topic.
-
9 Ways COVID-19 Will Change the 2020 ElectionsPolitics The 2020 election will be like no other in history, as the COVID-19 pandemic will upend the business of politics as usual.
-
How to Run for Local OfficePolitics If you’ve ever thought that you could do a better job than the elected officials currently in office, here’s how to launch a campaign—and win.
