There’s no longer denying two overwhelming trends that -- barring a last-minute voter backlash -- are likely to produce a markedly changed Congress next year, one that is much more Republican and much more conservative. The GOP is poised for major gains, with even odds that the party will take the House and come close to parity in the Senate. Perhaps even more significant, the new crop of Republicans in Congress will be far more conservative than their GOP fellows in the House today.
Democrats are pinning their hopes for a comeback on economic gains -- a recovery that would make people a little less pessimistic about the future. That isn’t happening. Depressing housing numbers, slower growth and a lack of progress in job creation are undermining confidence and consumer spending, which is further retarding growth.
As a result, even among Democrats are becoming more pessimistic about their chances of holding on to the House, despite the big financial advantage they hold. Politico summed up that pessimism today, and respected political pundits are increasingly seeing a GOP takeover. Charlie Cook, the preeminent analyst of individual House races, goes so far as to say the odds now favor that outcome, and others will likely follow suit.
Sign up for Kiplinger’s Free E-Newsletters
Profit and prosper with the best of expert advice on investing, taxes, retirement, personal finance and more - straight to your e-mail.
Profit and prosper with the best of expert advice - straight to your e-mail.
Although the Senate is still unlikely to change hands because Republicans would need to win almost every competitive race, the odds are rising. Nate Silver, whose painstaking analyses of polls and data are widely respected, sees a GOP gain of six to seven seats, and rates the chances of gaining 10 -- the number needed to seize control -- at about 20%, up from essentially zero not long ago.
What’s more, Republicans who are elected in November will be far more conservative than those in office today. Tea Party-backed candidates are doing far better than anyone expected, knocking off more moderate, establishment-backed candidates in several primaries. The latest example is the likely defeat of Sen. Lisa Murkowski in Alaska to Joe Miller, who had the support of Sarah Palin and Tea Party activists. If Miller wins the nomination, he’ll join several other GOP Tea Party candidates for the Senate: Ken Buck in Colorado, Rand Paul in Kentucky, Sharron Angle in Nevada and Marco Rubio in Florida. Many House members, both incumbents and candidates, are also in the Tea Party camp. Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-MN) has formed a Tea Party caucus with more than a dozen members, including Reps. Mike Pence (R-IN), Steve King (R-IA), Pete Hoekstra (R-MI) and John Carter (R-TX).
Even incumbent GOP candidates not connected to the Tea Party have been moving noticeably to the right to fend off challengers. That’s what helped Sen. John McCain win his primary in Arizona. Some Republicans may move back toward the center for the general election, as Rubio is already doing, but many won’t want to risk undermining GOP enthusiasm.
The rightward move is working well for the Republican Party in the elections. It is exciting the base and boosting turnout. In this week’s Florida primaries, for example, GOP turnout was one third higher than Democratic turnout. It’s less clear that tilting right is best strategy for the GOP in the long run. The vast majority of Americans sit more in the middle, whether center-right or center-left, and unless Republicans can appeal to them (including the growing proportion of minorities), their chances of winning Congress and the presidency in 2012 are likely to diminish.
As for what the shift will mean when the new Congress convenes: If a more conservative Republican Party holds firm, the result will be complete deadlock, with no chance of compromise with Obama and Democrats. That will be fine with the part of the population that wants to tear up Congress in order to remake it, but it won’t help solve the problems that are boosting antiestablishment candidates in the first place -- including reining in the deficit and fixing the economy. And it may stymie revisions in the new health care law. Both sides think some reworking is necessary, but if the GOP insists on an all-or-nothing repeal, the result will be the status quo.
The problem is that people today -- with plenty of reason -- are voting against the status quo in Washington and more specifically, against the economy. That may or may not be a worthwhile first step, but the second step has to be to propose solutions -- solutions only that not only will work but also that can be passed by a divided government. Nobody is thinking enough about that now. Eventually, they’ll have to.
-
Take Charge of Retirement Spending With This Simple StrategyTo make sure you're in control of retirement spending, rather than the other way around, allocate funds to just three purposes: income, protection and legacy.
-
Here's How To Get Organized And Work For YourselfWhether you’re looking for a side gig or planning to start your own business, it has never been easier to strike out on your own. Here is our guide to navigating working for yourself.
-
AI Regulation is Looming: Kiplinger Economic ForecastsEconomic Forecasts Find out what Washington and regulators have planned for artificial intelligence.
-
The Biden Tax Plan: How the Build Back Better Act Could Affect Your Tax BillPolitics Depending on your income, the Build Back Better Act recently passed by the House could boost or cut your future tax bills.
-
Kiplinger's 2020 Election ForecastPolitics For nearly a century, The Kiplinger Letter has forecasted the outcome of presidential elections to keep readers informed of what's coming and what it means for them. Here's our call for 2020.
-
The 2020 Election and Your MoneyPolitics We’ve assessed how the presidential candidates’ stances on financial issues will affect your wallet.
-
5 HEROES Act Provisions with a Good Chance of Becoming LawPolitics The massive federal stimulus bill just passed by the House of Representatives is "dead on arrival" in the Senate. But a few proposals in the bill have enough bipartisan support to eventually become law.
-
Vote by Mail: A State-by-State Guide to Absentee Ballot VotingPolitics With health authorities recommending people continue to social distance, the idea of voting by mail is becoming an increasingly hot topic.
-
9 Ways COVID-19 Will Change the 2020 ElectionsPolitics The 2020 election will be like no other in history, as the COVID-19 pandemic will upend the business of politics as usual.
-
How to Run for Local OfficePolitics If you’ve ever thought that you could do a better job than the elected officials currently in office, here’s how to launch a campaign—and win.
