Are Republicans taking a big risk if they keep voting overwhelmingly against the stimulus? Not if it passes anyway. In fact, voting no is a far safer political bet, and the upside is big.
Republicans know the bill will pass with or without their support. And Obama will get the credit if it works regardless of how many Republicans sign on or how much they influence the bill. So what do they have to lose by opposing it? Not much.
That's not to say they'll try to hold up the legislation or kill it in a Senate filibuster. They won't have the votes, and Obama's popularity makes it hard to stand in his way. They'd be flooded with irate callers for putting the brakes on it, and then they'd be held to blame if the economy gets worse, which it almost certainly will. Plus, they realize businesses want the tax breaks in the package (the part the GOP supports). There's also unemployment benefits and a vital fix for the alternative minimum tax to prevent it from applying to millions more upper-middle-income earners. They won't stand for being vilified for killing even something they remain largely philosophically opposed to.
Sign up for Kiplinger’s Free E-Newsletters
Profit and prosper with the best of expert advice on investing, taxes, retirement, personal finance and more - straight to your e-mail.
Profit and prosper with the best of expert advice - straight to your e-mail.
There may be some more accommodation yet to come for Republicans. The Senate may insist on some larger tax breaks than the House, for instance, and Obama will go an extra mile to win some bipartisanship support. But even if some changes are made, it probably won't be the type of wholesale change, such as dropping most of the spending, that would bring many Republicans aboard.
Opposing it in large number, though, could be a strategic win. Even if the stimulus works, it will take a while to see its effects. It might even be two or three years before big infrastructure work is seen as contributing to an economic rebound or the broadband telecommunications network is expanded and the energy grid fixed.
If the economy remains very anemic, Republicans will claim en masse that they always knew the stimulus was bad legislation and wouldn't work and would explode the deficit further and expand big government and entitlements. It could be their best firepower in the midterm election in 2010 when historically, although not always, the party out of power in the White House gains seats. A trillion dollar stimulus that may be only marginally effective could be a campaign godsend, in fact.
When the economy does turn around eventually, the stimulus debate may be moot. The public will have moved on to other issues, the sour national mood will have lifted, and many voters by then may not remember or care who voted or how. If there is a faster rebound, Republicans can credit other factors, not the government spending spree, or they'll say the rebound would have been quicker had there been more tax breaks for individuals and business. The stimulus will be their trillion dollar punching bag whether it works or not.
-
Here's How To Get Organized And Work For YourselfWhether you’re looking for a side gig or planning to start your own business, it has never been easier to strike out on your own. Here is our guide to navigating working for yourself.
-
How to Manage Risk With Diversification"Don't put all your eggs in one basket" means different things to different investors. Here's how to manage your risk with portfolio diversification.
-
AI Regulation is Looming: Kiplinger Economic ForecastsEconomic Forecasts Find out what Washington and regulators have planned for artificial intelligence.
-
The Biden Tax Plan: How the Build Back Better Act Could Affect Your Tax BillPolitics Depending on your income, the Build Back Better Act recently passed by the House could boost or cut your future tax bills.
-
Kiplinger's 2020 Election ForecastPolitics For nearly a century, The Kiplinger Letter has forecasted the outcome of presidential elections to keep readers informed of what's coming and what it means for them. Here's our call for 2020.
-
The 2020 Election and Your MoneyPolitics We’ve assessed how the presidential candidates’ stances on financial issues will affect your wallet.
-
5 HEROES Act Provisions with a Good Chance of Becoming LawPolitics The massive federal stimulus bill just passed by the House of Representatives is "dead on arrival" in the Senate. But a few proposals in the bill have enough bipartisan support to eventually become law.
-
Vote by Mail: A State-by-State Guide to Absentee Ballot VotingPolitics With health authorities recommending people continue to social distance, the idea of voting by mail is becoming an increasingly hot topic.
-
9 Ways COVID-19 Will Change the 2020 ElectionsPolitics The 2020 election will be like no other in history, as the COVID-19 pandemic will upend the business of politics as usual.
-
How to Run for Local OfficePolitics If you’ve ever thought that you could do a better job than the elected officials currently in office, here’s how to launch a campaign—and win.
