Prolonged recession. The market seems priced for a short and shallow recession. But the economic downturn could be deeper or much more protracted than assumed.
Odds of occurrence: 30%
Earnings tank. Wall Street's earnings estimates for 2008 and 2009 may be too optimistic. Individual stocks could fall each time analysts trim forecasts, causing big declines in market indexes.
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Odds of occurrence: 50%
| Row 0 - Cell 0 | The Worst Is Over |
| Row 1 - Cell 0 | The Best Ways to Invest in Bonds |
| Row 2 - Cell 0 | Spotting a Stock-Market Bottom |
| Row 3 - Cell 0 | How the Experts See It |
Gasoline prices pass $4 a gallon. Rising prices at the pump are an enormous tax on everyone, eating into disposable income and discretionary spending. Gas prices higher than $4 a gallon would squeeze consumption.
Odds of occurrence: 35%
Sharp overseas slowdown. Surging exports and buoyant economic growth abroad have cushioned the U.S. economy. But rising inflation overseas and the effects of a U.S. recession and ailing credit markets could lead to a global slowdown.
Odds of occurrence: 25%
The Fed reverses course. The market assumes that the Fed will continue to cut short-term interest rates. But inflationary pressures and an effort to slow the slide of the dollar may force the Fed to reverse course within six to 12 months.
Odds of occurrence: 25%
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Stock Market Today: Stocks Rally Despite Rising Geopolitical TensionThe main indexes were mixed on Tuesday but closed well off their lows after an early flight to safety.
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What's at Stake for Alphabet as DOJ Eyes Google's ChromeAlphabet is higher Tuesday even as antitrust officials at the DOJ support forcing Google to sell its popular web browser. Here's what you need to know.
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Fed Cuts Rates Again: What the Experts Are SayingFederal Reserve The central bank continued to ease, but a new administration in Washington clouds the outlook for future policy moves.
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Fed Goes Big With First Rate Cut: What the Experts Are Saying
Federal Reserve A slowing labor market prompted the Fed to start with a jumbo-sized reduction to borrowing costs.
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Stock Market Today: Stocks Retreat Ahead of Nvidia EarningsMarkets lost ground on light volume Wednesday as traders keyed on AI bellwether Nvidia earnings after the close.
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Stock Market Today: Stocks Edge Higher With Nvidia Earnings in FocusNvidia stock gained ground ahead of tomorrow's after-the-close earnings event, while Super Micro Computer got hit by a short seller report.
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Stock Market Today: Dow Hits New Record Closing HighThe Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 finished in the red as semiconductor stocks struggled.
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Stock Market Today: Stocks Pop After Powell's Jackson Hole SpeechFed Chair Powell's Jackson Hole speech struck a dovish tone which sent stocks soaring Friday.
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Stock Market Today: Stocks Drop Ahead of Powell's Jackson Hole SpeechSentiment turned cautious ahead of Fed Chair Powell's highly anticipated speech Friday at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium.
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Stock Market Today: Stocks Rise After Jobs Data Lifts Rate-Cut OddsPreliminary data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics shows job growth was lower than previously estimated.
