David Payne
David is both staff economist and reporter for The Kiplinger Letter, overseeing Kiplinger forecasts for the U.S. and world economies. Previously, he was senior principal economist in the Center for Forecasting and Modeling at IHS/GlobalInsight, and an economist in the Chief Economist's Office of the U.S. Department of Commerce. David has co-written weekly reports on economic conditions since 1992, and has forecasted GDP and its components since 1995, beating the Blue Chip Indicators forecasts two-thirds of the time. David is a Certified Business Economist as recognized by the National Association for Business Economics. He has two master's degrees and is ABD in economics from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.
Latest articles by David Payne
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Kiplinger Inflation Outlook: Elevated Inflation Stubbornly Persists
Economic Forecasts Core inflation has changed little in the last eight months, confounding the Federal Reserve.
By David Payne Last updated
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Kiplinger Jobs Outlook: Labor Market Strength Surprises
Economic Forecasts Strong job growth in September and revisions to July and August indicate the labor market’s weakness was overstated.
By David Payne Last updated
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Kiplinger Interest Rates Outlook: The Fed Hits the Pause Button
Forecasts The Fed left rates unchanged in January, and likely won’t cut again until May or June.
By David Payne Last updated
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What To Know if You’re in the Market for a New Car This Year
The Kiplinger Letter Buying a new car will get a little easier, but don’t expect many deals.
By David Payne Published
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Kiplinger GDP Outlook: Consumer Spending Juices Growth
Kiplinger Forecasts Consumer spending surged in the second half of 2024. But can it continue?
By David Payne Last updated
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What Could Derail the Economy This Year?
The Letter While the outlook for the U.S. economy is mostly favorable, there are plenty of risks that bear watching.
By David Payne Published
The Letter -
Three Ways President Trump Could Impact the Economy
The Letter Some of Trump's top priorities could boost economic growth, but others risk fueling inflation.
By David Payne Published
The Letter -
Kiplinger Business Spending Outlook: Still Cautious for Now
Economic Forecasts Businesses will invest more after the election is in the rearview mirror.
By David Payne Last updated
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Should We Worry About the Slowing U.S. Economy
The Letter With the labor market cooling off and financial markets turning jittery, just how healthy is the economy right now?
By David Payne Published
The Letter -
Aging in Place Is Big Business for Builders
The Kiplinger Letter Many people will be looking to make their homes aging-friendly in the years to come.
By David Payne Published
The Kiplinger Letter -
New Graduates Navigate a Challenging Labor Market
The Kiplinger Letter Things are getting tough for new graduates. Job offers are drying up and the jobless rate is increasing. Are internships the answer?
By David Payne Last updated
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Car Prices Are Finally Coming Down
The Kiplinger Letter For the first time in years, it may be possible to snag a good deal on a new car.
By David Payne Published
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Kiplinger Special: The Long-Term Future of the U.S. Economy
The Kiplinger Letter Kiplinger's report into what it will take the U.S. to maintain a healthy economic growth rate.
By David Payne Published
The Kiplinger Letter -
Future U.S. Economic Growth Hinges on Immigrants
The Kiplinger Letter With the native birthrate slipping, employers are increasingly relying on foreign-born workers to staff up.
By David Payne Published
The Kiplinger Letter -
Fed Rate Cuts Still on Hold
The Kiplinger Letter With inflation stubbornly elevated, the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates high for now.
By David Payne Published
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A Spotlight on the Pacific States: The Kiplinger Letter
The Kiplinger Letter Most Pacific states are seeing good job growth in multiple sectors including tourism, hospitality, and construction.
By David Payne Published
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A Spotlight on the Mountain States: The Kiplinger Letter
The Kiplinger Letter Most Mountain states are seeing good job growth in multiple sectors from healthcare, energy, and semiconductor production to farming and government.
By David Payne Last updated
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A Spotlight on the Plains States: The Kiplinger Letter
The Kiplinger Letter The labor market is tight in the Plains states and outside of healthcare and construction most sectors are flat or down.
By David Payne Published
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A Spotlight on the South Central States: The Kiplinger Letter
The Kiplinger Letter Outside of the tech sector slump, job growth in the South Central states remains buoyant, with healthcare, construction and business investment going strong.
By David Payne Published
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A Spotlight on the Midwest: The Kiplinger Letter
The Kiplinger Letter Despite slow or no job growth, the overall outlook for the Midwest region remains mostly positive due to in-migration and key business sectors.
By David Payne Last updated
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A Spotlight on the Mid-South States: The Kiplinger Letter
The Kiplinger Letter Despite slow or no job growth, the overall outlook for the mid-south region remains mostly positive due to in-migration and key business sectors.
By David Payne Published
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Four trends for the auto industry in 2024
The Kiplinger Letter Here's what to expect in the auto industry this year. If you’re in the market for a car it won’t be quite as daunting as it was during the pandemic and after.
By David Payne Published
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A Spotlight on the Southeastern States: The Kiplinger Letter
The Kiplinger Letter The Southeastern states will see steady job growth in the healthcare and hospitality sectors with some pressures from inward migration.
By David Payne Published
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A Spotlight on the Mid-Atlantic States: The Kiplinger Letter
The Kiplinger Letter Solid rebound in tech, hospitality, healthcare and other fields fuel hiring, but a slowing economy will equate to only modest growth.
By David Payne Published
The Kiplinger Letter