David Payne
David is both staff economist and reporter for The Kiplinger Letter, overseeing Kiplinger forecasts for the U.S. and world economies. Previously, he was senior principal economist in the Center for Forecasting and Modeling at IHS/GlobalInsight, and an economist in the Chief Economist's Office of the U.S. Department of Commerce. David has co-written weekly reports on economic conditions since 1992, and has forecasted GDP and its components since 1995, beating the Blue Chip Indicators forecasts two-thirds of the time. David is a Certified Business Economist as recognized by the National Association for Business Economics. He has two master's degrees and is ABD in economics from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.
Latest articles by David Payne
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Autonomous Trucks Are Coming to a Road Near You: The Kiplinger Letter
The Kiplinger Letter What does the rollout of autonomous trucks and cars mean for the commercial sector?
By David Payne Published
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The Era of Super-Low Interest Rates Could Be Over: The Kiplinger Letter
The Kiplinger Letter We’re likely never going back to the historically low rates that prevailed in late 2019 and early 2020.
By David Payne Published
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Cargo Thefts on the Rise: The Kiplinger Letter
The Kiplinger Letter Organized crime rings are targeting goods in shipments.
By David Payne Published
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Is the Economy Inching Toward a Recession?: The Kiplinger Letter
The Kiplinger Letter The odds of the U.S. tipping into a recession could depend on how a few key issues are resolved in the coming months.
By David Payne Published
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COVID Hospitalization Rates See an Uptick As Winter Looms — The Kiplinger Letter
The Kiplinger Letter A new Omicron booster is available, but the elderly are still at risk and winter is right around the corner.
By David Payne Published
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Will the U.S. Dodge a Recession?: Kiplinger Economic Forecasts
Kiplinger Economic Forecasts The labor market is healthy enough to dodge a recession, even though job growth is lethargic.
By David Payne Published
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Five Reasons Your Healthcare Costs Will Ease: Kiplinger Economic Forecasts
Economic Forecasts From technical advancements to cheaper drugs, healthcare cost relief is coming.
By David Payne Published
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Global Freight Costs Settle as Lumber Prices Rise: Kiplinger Economic Forecasts
Economic Forecasts Freight shipping costs for air cargo are lowering to pre-pandemic levels as lumber prices jump due to Canadian wildfires and new home builds.
By David Payne Published
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About Kiplinger’s Economic Outlooks
Economic Forecasts Regularly updated insights and analysis on the economy’s next moves.
By David Payne Last updated
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Consumers Still Spending but Looking For Deals: Kiplinger Economic Forecasts
Economic Forecasts Consumers are shopping more during major online sales, but while total sales are up, the average purchase cost dipped.
By David Payne Published
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UPS and UAW Labor Disputes Rage Over Wage Fights: Kiplinger Economic Forecasts
Economic Forecasts United Auto Workers are at a standstill in negotiations with the Big Three automakers, and UPS has narrowly avoided a Teamsters strike, for now.
By Sean Lengell Published
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Auto Market Recovers Slowly but Deals Still Hard to Find: Kiplinger Economic Forecasts
Economic Forecasts Understand how the auto market is slowly recovering as car inventory improves. Buyers have more options, but interest rates are still high.
By David Payne Published
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Recession Delayed to 2024, If Any: Kiplinger Economic Forecasts
Economic Forecasts Rising interest rates haven’t slowed consumer spending enough to bring the economy into a recession so far, but it could still be on the horizon.
By David Payne Published
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Risk of Fall Government Shutdown: Kiplinger Economic Forecasts
Economic Forecasts The latest Congress stalemate risks a government shutdown in October 2023, spending cuts and a dent in GDP growth.
By David Payne Published
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China’s Economy Weakened by Low House Prices and Falling Exports: Kiplinger Economic Forecasts
Economic Forecasts China’s economy lost momentum in May due in part to fewer exports and declining housing prices, but the country’s fast fashion retailers are booming.
By David Payne Published
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Cooling Labor Market Can Help Inflation Come Down: Kiplinger Economic Forecasts
Economic Forecasts Inflation could ease further as the labor market cools, with unemployment edging up and more workers who are reluctant to quit.
By David Payne Published
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U.S. Debt on Course to Balloon Before It Shrinks: Kiplinger Economic Forecasts
Economic Forecasts See why U.S. debt will continue to rise, thanks to factors such as inflation, Medicare, and Social Security spending.
By David Payne Published
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Mixed Bag on Business Costs as Manufacturing Costs Fall, Oil is Headed Up: Kiplinger Economic Forecasts
Economic Forecasts Mixed bag on business costs as manufacturing and gas prices fall, but oil is up: Kiplinger Economic Forecasts
By David Payne Published
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Spending Cuts Could Trigger Deeper Slowdown: Kiplinger Economic Forecasts
Economic Forecasts Spending Cuts Could Trigger Deeper Slowdown: Kiplinger Economic Forecasts
By David Payne Last updated
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Shortage of electrical engineers to power labor market growth: Kiplinger Economic Forecasts
Economic Forecasts A lack of skilled graduates and funding are contributing to the shortage.
By David Payne Published
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What's Likely to Happen to Inflation Bond Rates
I-bonds are likely to become a good — not great — savings option as inflation bond rates are expected to lower.
By David Payne Published
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Kiplinger’s Economic Outlooks
Economic Forecasts Kiplinger’s Economic Outlooks: insights on the economy’s next moves.
By David Payne Last updated
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As Used-Car Prices Fall, Financing Costs Rise
Prices of used cars are off their painful peak and should continue to ease, but rising interest rates are killing any gains in affordability for those who can’t bring cash to the table.
By David Payne Last updated
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Holiday Bargains Ahead for Shoppers as Retailers Shed Overstock
Many (though not all) vendors will be turning to discounts and clearances even as inflation eats at their sales.
By David Payne Last updated