David Payne
David is both staff economist and reporter for The Kiplinger Letter, overseeing Kiplinger forecasts for the U.S. and world economies. Previously, he was senior principal economist in the Center for Forecasting and Modeling at IHS/GlobalInsight, and an economist in the Chief Economist's Office of the U.S. Department of Commerce. David has co-written weekly reports on economic conditions since 1992, and has forecasted GDP and its components since 1995, beating the Blue Chip Indicators forecasts two-thirds of the time. David is a Certified Business Economist as recognized by the National Association for Business Economics. He has two master's degrees and is ABD in economics from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.
Latest articles by David Payne
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Help Wanted in America: Skilled Workers
Technology In an ever-more-competitive job market, technology increases the need for skilled workers.
By David Payne Published
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U.S. Economy to Perk Up in Second Half
Economic Forecasts Consumers are recovering from a swoon induced by a wobbly stock market. But energy, other sectors will continue to struggle.
By David Payne Published
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Improving Prospects for Most Small Businesses
business Firms in the housing and tourism sectors can prosper as home sales surge and low gas prices encourage more travel.
By David Payne Published
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2016: A Second Good Year for Housing
business The housing market picked up last year in many areas of the U.S. Look for it to grow as well or better this year.
By David Payne Published
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No Recession Brewing for U.S. Economy
Economic Forecasts Barring some serious shock, the economy overall should still post a good, albeit not great, year.
By David Payne Published
Economic Forecasts -
15 Best States to Find a Job in 2016
Economic Forecasts Looking for a job?
By David Payne Published
Economic Forecasts -
Jobs and Hiring Outlook, 2016
business Tech and health care continue to lead the fields where jobs go wanting. Employers who need to fill those slots will have to pick up their game.
By David Payne Published
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Learn What the Fed's Eventual Rate Increase Means to You
Economic Forecasts Slightly higher loan payments and short-term market volatility are in the cards.
By David Payne Published
Economic Forecasts -
Where the Housing Market Is Headed in Late 2015
business First-time home buyers will be a big driver of this market's recovery.
By David Payne Published
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2015 Economic Outlook, State by State
Economic Forecasts Kiplinger forecasts a 2.5% growth rate nationally this year, after a 2.4% gain in 2014. Here are our forecasts for growth, as well as employment gains, for all 50 states.
By David Payne Published
Economic Forecasts -
Where the Jobs Will Be
Economic Forecasts Demand for workers will stay strong and employers will be raising wages.
By David Payne Published
Economic Forecasts -
Housing Market Gets Stronger in 2015
Economic Forecasts An improving economy and attractive home features will draw first-time and move-up buyers.
By David Payne Published
Economic Forecasts -
Winners, Losers from the Stronger U.S. Dollar
Economic Forecasts While manufacturers and consumers will gain, U.S. exporters and tourist attractions will get squeezed.
By David Payne Published
Economic Forecasts -
Small Business Revving Up in 2015
business Many firms with fewer than 50 workers have plans to expand, venture into new markets and add to payrolls.
By David Payne Published
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U.S. Manufacturers on a Roll
Economic Forecasts Cheap energy and an improving economy will keep manufacturing growing at a better-than-average rate.
By David Payne Published
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Housing Market Will Improve in 2015
Economic Forecasts The lagging sector is new single family homes, where a shortage of skilled labor and buildable lots is holding back construction.
By David Payne Published
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The U.S. Economy Is the World’s Growth Engine Again
Economic Forecasts As more Americans find jobs, they're willing to spend. That's giving the economy enough oomph to overcome slowing among big U.S. trade partners.
By David Payne Published
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Faster Growth Looks to Stay for Awhile
Economic Forecasts From mid-2014, the U.S. economy should grow 3% or better through 2016. Only two slight risks might hold us back.
By David Payne Published
Economic Forecasts -
When Will the Economy Feel Better?
Economic Forecasts We’re almost there. As the expansion continues to improve, more of its rewards will be seen and felt.
By David Payne Published
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Wages to Rise — More for Some than Others
Economic Forecasts After years of little or no income growth, wage gains are finally beginning to gather a bit of steam.
By David Payne Published
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Next Rise in Interest Rates Will Come in 2015
business Even when rates finally do head up, they won't zoom out of control. A progressive series of stair steps is more like it.
By David Payne Published
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The Risks of Deflation
Economic Forecasts When prices start falling, economies stop growing.
By David Payne Published
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U.S. Manufacturing Growing Steadily
Economic Forecasts Cheaper domestic energy, rising wages overseas and industries that use high-tech to make high-tech products are making producing goods on American soil attractive again.
By David Payne Published
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The World’s Most Vulnerable Emerging Markets
Economic Forecasts Investors must understand the factors that make certain nations more susceptible to contagion in financial markets.
By David Payne Published
Economic Forecasts