To help you understand the driving force behind autonomous trucks and cars, and what we expect to happen in the future, our highly experienced Kiplinger Letter team will keep you abreast of the latest developments and forecasts (Get a free issue of The Kiplinger Letter or subscribe). You'll get all the latest news first by subscribing, but we will publish many (but not all) of the forecasts a few days afterward online. Here’s the latest…
Autonomous trucks are slowly hitting the road, mostly on interstates in Texas and the Southwest, with a human driver on board, standing by, or traveling in platoons behind a lead truck driven by a person. Maersk is running Kodiak Robotics trucks between warehouses in Houston and Oklahoma City with a safety driver. Daimler plans to offer the service commercially by 2027. Many other companies are in the space as well, so there is likely to be a first-mover advantage that will cause consolidation among companies by the end of the decade.
Other current players in the sector that are likely to be ready to go, in the near future, are Aurora Innovation and Gatik, the latter focusing on short-haul. TuSimple had been expected to be an immediate player, but they may be shifting focus to China. New entrants include Waabi, Stack AV, and Applied Intuition, which bought out the bankrupt Embark. Waymo Via will focus on taxis and ride-hailing for now.
The rollout of autonomous trucks will be modest at first. For now, the tech is more advanced than society’s acceptance of autonomous trucks. The American Automobile Association surveyed its members about autonomous vehicles in general, and 68% responded that they were afraid of them. Governor Newsom of California recently vetoed a bill that would require a safety driver in all autonomous trucks.
Sign up for Kiplinger’s Free E-Newsletters
Profit and prosper with the best of expert advice on investing, taxes, retirement, personal finance and more - straight to your e-mail.
Profit and prosper with the best of expert advice - straight to your e-mail.
The industry will need to build up a strong safety record to convince the public, insurers and lawmakers that wider adoption is suitable. The companies will also need to provide assurances about cyber-security risks. Until these happen, autonomous trucks will need safety drivers or be limited to interstate travel only, platooning behind a person-driven truck. This means that more transfer hubs will be needed on interstates, where autonomous trucks can pick up a driver or switch with manned trucks.
Look for more manufacturers to offer fee-for-service instead of purchase, such as what John Deere does with its driverless tractors. Not to mention how driverless trucks will intensify labor strife. Port workers’ unions are already pushing back against automation and truck drivers will face the same issue.
This forecast first appeared in The Kiplinger Letter, which has been running since 1923 and is a collection of concise weekly forecasts on business and economic trends, as well as what to expect from Washington, to help you understand what’s coming up to make the most of your investments and your money. Subscribe to The Kiplinger Letter.
Related Content
-
Premium Tax Credit: Are You Eligible For This Health Insurance Tax Break?Tax Credits The tax credit can help qualifying individuals pay for coverage from the Affordable Care Act’s health insurance marketplace.
-
Winners and Losers of Fed Rate CutsNavigating interest-rate changes can seem daunting, but these areas of the fixed-income market could perform better (or worse) than others.
-
Kiplinger Outlook: Telecom Companies Brace for Tough TimesThe Letter The telecom industry is entering a new era that threatens profitability. But the coming Trump administration will make it easier for the major players to adjust.
-
Start-ups Trying to (Profitably) Solve the World’s Hardest ProblemsThe Letter More investors are interested in companies working on breakthrough science to tackle huge societal challenges. The field of deep tech has major tailwinds, too.
-
The Big Questions for AR’s FutureThe Letter As Meta shows off a flashy AR prototype, Microsoft quietly stops supporting its own AR headset. The two companies highlight the promise and peril of AR.
-
China's Economy Faces Darkening OutlookThe Letter What the slowdown in China means for U.S. businesses.
-
AI Start-ups Keep Scoring Huge SumsThe Kiplinger Letter Investors continue to make bigger bets on artificial intelligence start-ups, even for small teams with no revenue. Some backers think a startling tech breakthrough is near.
-
Should We Worry About the Slowing U.S. EconomyThe Letter With the labor market cooling off and financial markets turning jittery, just how healthy is the economy right now?
-
New Phones Get All the Hype, but Consumers Still Love Old Models
The Letter Even as flashy artificial intelligence features drive sales of new smartphones, used phones continue to fetch big bucks as demand outstrips supply.
-
Starlink's Internet Beamed From Space Is Taking OffThe Kiplinger Letter Satellite broadband provider Starlink is taking over the space market. Amazon’s mega-constellation will soon join the fray, adding to the unprecedented disruption.
