The prices businesses pay for materials and components have a major impact on the prices we pay for essential goods and therefore the wider economy. So to help you make better investments and other financial decisions we will keep you in the loop on major developments in this market (Get a free issue of The Kiplinger Letter or subscribe). You will get them first by subscribing, but we will publish many (but not all) of the forecasts a few days afterward online. Here’s the latest…
One silver lining of the slowing economy: manufacturing costs are finally easing after years of snarled supply chains, shipping delays and spikes in the prices of many key materials.
Inflation is far from vanquished, but the slowdown in commodities and capital goods prices is welcome.
Sign up for Kiplinger’s Free E-Newsletters
Profit and prosper with the best of expert advice on investing, taxes, retirement, personal finance and more - straight to your e-mail.
Profit and prosper with the best of expert advice - straight to your e-mail.
Orders for capital equipment have peaked following the pandemic surge. Adjusted for inflation, new orders are down 6% from last year. Unfilled orders are back to the pre-pandemic average. Some equipment shortages remain, especially for electrical gear and HVAC systems. Autos and aerospace are still humming and fueling orders for precision machining equipment.
Most manufacturing sectors are pulling back owing to concerns about demand and tightening credit; the result of banks growing more cautious on lending. That means less competition and smaller price hikes for the companies that do purchase new equipment.
Most materials prices have dipped, or will, cooling the cost of manufacturing and construction.
Energy costs may be poised for diverging paths
Oil is up and natural gas is down. Oil prices have fallen lately, but demand is outrunning supply. Stocks of crude oil and gasoline in the U.S. are low, and oil use is rising briskly in Asia, especially China. Several disruptions to supply, from the Middle East to Canada, could push up prices later this year unless the global economy really stumbles. Russia is exporting more oil than initially expected, despite stiff Western sanctions. But OPEC is cutting back.
Meanwhile, natural gas prices have pulled back from last year’s peak. A mild winter in the U.S. and Europe kept demand in check, and now U.S. stockpiles of stored gas are well above normal. Extreme heat this summer could fire up demand for electricity, and thus gas, since the U.S. relies heavily on gas for power generation. But for now, it appears gas costs should stay modest, which is good news for the many industries that use it.
Finally, freight shipping rates have fallen significantly and are back down to their pre-pandemic levels, or lower, now that shipping demand has slackened.
The dilemma for companies: whether to go back to sourcing goods from Asia, as shipping costs are down, and risk disruptions from a future geopolitical crisis.
This forecast first appeared in The Kiplinger Letter. Since 1923, the Letter has helped millions of business executives and investors profit by providing reliable forecasts on business and the economy, as well as what to expect from Washington. Get a free issue of The Kiplinger Letter or subscribe
Read more
-
Should You Do A Roth IRA Conversion? Nine Things to ConsiderThe Tax Letter Thinking of converting a traditional IRA to a Roth IRA? The Kiplinger Tax Letter Editor highlights nine factors you should consider before making a move.
-
33 Stocks That Could Rally 50% or More This YearAnalysts say these S&P 500 stocks have at least 50% price upside over the next year or so.
-
The Economic Impact of the US-China Trade WarThe Letter The US-China trade war will impact US consumers and business. The decoupling process could be messy.
-
AI Heads to WashingtonThe Kiplinger Letter There’s big opportunity for AI tools that analyze MRIs and other medical images. But also big challenges that clinicians and companies will have to overcome.
-
The AI Doctor Coming to Read Your Test ResultsThe Kiplinger Letter There’s big opportunity for AI tools that analyze CAT scans, MRIs and other medical images. But there are also big challenges that human clinicians and tech companies will have to overcome.
-
The New Space Age Takes OffThe Kiplinger Letter From fast broadband to SOS texting, space has never been more embedded in peoples’ lives. The future is even more exciting for rockets, satellites and emerging space tech.
-
Rising AI Demand Stokes Undersea InvestmentsThe Kiplinger Letter As demand soars for AI, there’s a need to transport huge amounts of data across oceans. Tech giants have big plans for new submarine cables, including the longest ever.
-
What DOGE is Doing NowThe Kiplinger Letter As Musk's DOGE pursues its ambitious agenda, uncertainty and legal challenges are mounting — causing frustration for Trump.
-
A Move Away From Free TradeThe Letter President Trump says long-term gain will be worth short-term pain, but the pain could be significant this year.
-
The Explosion of New AI ToolsThe Kiplinger Letter Workers and consumers soon won’t be able to escape generative AI. Does that mean societal disruption and productivity gains are right around the corner?
