JPMorgan Earnings in Focus as Q1 Season Kicks Off
Our preview of the upcoming week's earnings reports includes JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Delta Air Lines (DAL) and UnitedHealth Group (UNH).
First-quarter earnings season kicks off later this week. Among the notable names on the earnings calendar are big bank JPMorgan Chase (JPM, $132.46), air carrier Delta Air Lines (DAL, $36.79) and insurance giant UnitedHealth Group (UNH, $542.58).
The first three months of 2022 will be remembered as a period of extreme volatility for stocks. In addition to red-hot levels of inflation and supply-chain challenges carried over from 2021, Russia's attack on Ukraine sent markets into a tailspin – and catapulted commodities prices higher.
And to combat these higher prices, the Federal Reserve initiated its first rate-hiking cycle in more than three years.
Sign up for Kiplinger’s Free E-Newsletters
Profit and prosper with the best of expert advice on investing, taxes, retirement, personal finance and more - straight to your e-mail.
Profit and prosper with the best of expert advice - straight to your e-mail.
Earnings take on more importance this time around "with valuation expansion potentially tough to come by due to rising interest rates and high inflation," says Jeff Buchbinder, equity strategist at independent broker-dealer LPL Financial.
Still, corporate America is in great shape, he adds, with 2022 earnings estimates now higher than they were at the start of the year.
"Despite margin pressures related to supply-chain disruptions and intense inflation pressures, we believe S&P 500 companies may deliver as much as 10% earnings per share (EPS) growth in the first quarter, compared to the current consensus estimate of about 5%," Buchbinder says.
JPMorgan Chase: Analysts Expect Underwhelming Q1 Earnings
Big banks typically mark the start of earnings season and several large financial stocks are set to report this week. Included among them is JPMorgan Chase, which will unveil its first-quarter results ahead of Wednesday's open.
"The U.S. economy is a key driver to consumer and commercial loan results, while geopolitical risks from Russia's invasion of Ukraine have hurt investment banking in Q1 2022," says CFRA Research analyst Kenneth Leon.
Leon adds that while the first quarter is typically one of the strongest for capital market and asset management businesses, that will not be the case this year.
He expects big banks will address the health of the U.S. economy and the implications of the Ukraine war in investor conference calls, but anticipates net interest income will likely post year-over-year (YoY) gains in the low single digits, while revenues and earnings for the industry will be negative relative to Q1 2021.
For JPM stock, specifically, consensus estimates are for earnings of $2.69 per share (-40.2% YoY) and revenue of $31.0 billion, up just 1.7% from the year-ago figure.
Looking ahead, though, Leon believes that "a continued rise in both the 10-year and 30-year U.S. Treasury rates may provide a lift to bank earnings in the second half of 2022."
He adds that large bank stocks are undervalued at current levels based on several metrics, including price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios. Indeed, JPM stock is currently trading at 11.8x analysts' 2022 earnings estimates, well below the S&P 500's P/E ratio of 25.7.
Delta Air Lines Should Benefit From "Rapid Recovery"
Delta Air Lines entered 2022 shaking off headwinds from the omicron variant of COVID-19, only to encounter spiking oil prices thanks to Russia's attack on Ukraine. The travel stock hit a 2022 bottom near $30 in early March, but has since recovered back to the $37 per-share mark after the airline said it will raise ticket prices in response to surging fuel costs.
Can a solid earnings report keep the wind at DAL stock's back?
While airline stocks are best for risk-tolerant investors, says Argus Research analyst John Staszak (Buy), "Delta's customers are among the most satisfied of any legacy carrier and have provided the company with sustained pricing power."
The analyst adds that at a mid-March industry conference, Delta management "said that demand is stronger than it has ever been and that it has never seen such a rapid recovery."
Delta Air Lines will unveil its first-quarter results ahead of the April 13 open. Analysts, on average, are projecting a per-share loss of $1.32 – a significant improvement over the $3.55 per-share loss the airline incurred in Q1 2021. On the top line, the consensus estimate is for $8.8 billion, +124.7% YoY.
Outperforming UnitedHealth Expected to Post Solid Q1 Earnings
UnitedHealth Group has shown resilience during a rough start to 2022 for the broader market. Shares of the Dow Jones stock are up around 8% for the year-to-date, compared to a 5.9% loss for the S&P 500.
As for the insurer's first-quarter earnings report – due out ahead of the April 14 open – "expect another quarter of robust revenue and customer growth at OptumHealth driven by the ongoing move towards value-based care and further build out of the care delivery offering," says Truist Securities analyst David MacDonald (Buy).
The analyst adds that falling COVID-19 cases will likely have a positive impact on diversified managed care as a whole, while M&A activity will "not only augment core trends, but also drive further broadening of the service offering/enhanced positioning around value-based care."
As for UNH, MacDonald calls the company's $5.4 billion acquisition of home healthcare firm LHC Group (LHCG) – announced in late March – a "home run" that will be "highly complementary to Optum’s already broad suite of post-acute services."
Overall, analysts are targeting earnings of $5.37 per share (+1.1% YoY) and revenue of $78.8 billion, a 12.2% improvement over the previous year.
Get Kiplinger Today newsletter — free
Profit and prosper with the best of Kiplinger's advice on investing, taxes, retirement, personal finance and much more. Delivered daily. Enter your email in the box and click Sign Me Up.
With over a decade of experience writing about the stock market, Karee Venema is the senior investing editor at Kiplinger.com. She joined the publication in April 2021 after 10 years of working as an investing writer and columnist at Schaeffer's Investment Research. In her previous role, Karee focused primarily on options trading, as well as technical, fundamental and sentiment analysis.
-
Tariffs Could Make Your Holiday Shopping Pricier in 2025
Tax Policy Trump’s tariffs would drive prices of clothes, toys, and furniture higher, according to a new study.
By Gabriella Cruz-Martínez Published
-
NYC Congestion Pricing: Ghost Tax or Necessary Fee?
State Taxes Drivers headed to Manhattan’s downtown district will face a new $9 toll in January.
By Gabriella Cruz-Martínez Published
-
October CPI Report Hits the Mark: What the Experts Are Saying About Inflation
CPI While the current pace of rising prices appears to have leveled off, the expected path of rate cuts has become less certain.
By Dan Burrows Published
-
Why Is Warren Buffett Selling So Much Stock?
Berkshire Hathaway is dumping equities, hoarding cash and making market participants nervous.
By Dan Burrows Published
-
Stock Market Today: Stocks Pause as Investors Assess Fed Policy
The Federal Reserve met expectations with a quarter-point rate cut.
By David Dittman Published
-
Fed Cuts Rates Again: What the Experts Are Saying
Federal Reserve The central bank continued to ease, but a new administration in Washington clouds the outlook for future policy moves.
By Dan Burrows Published
-
Stock Market Today: Dow Jumps 1,500 Points on Election Outcome
The removal of election uncertainty unleashed a powerful rally in equity markets.
By Dan Burrows Published
-
Market Reaction to Election Results: What the Experts Are Saying
Jobs Report Election uncertainty has been removed from the list of investors' worries, helping equities soar.
By Dan Burrows Published
-
Jobs Growth Stalls Amid Hurricanes and Strikes: What the Experts Are Saying
Jobs Report A dismal October payrolls print supports the case for a slow and steady pace of rate cuts.
By Dan Burrows Published
-
If You'd Put $1,000 Into Google Stock 20 Years Ago, Here's What You'd Have Today
Google parent Alphabet has been a market-beating machine for ages.
By Dan Burrows Published