Why Wall Street Likes Constellation Energy's $26 Billion Buy

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Constellation Energy (CEG) is one of the best S&P 500 stocks Friday, up more than 22% at last check, after the utility company said it will acquire independent power producer Calpine for a net purchase price of $26.6 billion. The merger of the two firms will create the nation's largest clean energy provider.

Constellation said it will use 50 million CEG shares priced at the 20-day volume-weighted average price (VWAP) of approximately $237.98 apiece and $4.5 billion in cash to fund the purchase. It will also assume roughly $12.7 billion of Calpine's net debt.

"This acquisition will help us better serve our customers across America, from families to businesses and utilities," said Constellation CEO Joe Dominguez in a statement. "By combining Constellation's unmatched expertise in zero-emission nuclear energy with Calpine's industry-leading, best-in-class, low-carbon natural gas and geothermal generation fleets, we will be able to offer the broadest array of energy products and services available in the industry."

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The transaction is expected to immediately begin boosting Constellation's earnings, with the company projecting an increase of more than 20% to EPS in 2026 and adding at least $2 per share to earnings in future years. It's also expected to add more than $2 billion of free cash flow annually.

The transaction is subject to the customary closing conditions, including regulatory approvals from numerous agencies, Constellation said. If all goes as planned, the transaction is expected to close within 12 months.

Is Constellation Energy stock a buy, sell or hold?

The utility stock was one of the top performers of 2024, ending the year up nearly 93% on a total return basis (price change plus dividends) and it remains a top stock pick this year too. Indeed, Wall Street is overwhelmingly bullish on the large-cap stock.

According to S&P Global Market Intelligence, the consensus recommendation among the 18 covering analysts that it tracks is Buy.

However, analysts' price targets may need to be adjusted following the news of the acquisition. At last check, the average analyst price target of $279 represents a discount of more than 7% to current levels.

Financial services firm UBS Global Research is one of those with a Buy rating on CEG stock, along with a $289 price target.

After rumors of the deal surfaced earlier this week, UBS Global Research analyst William Appicelli said the deal would position Constellation "for a variety of market conditions and have more volumetric upside as power demand grows, as most expect it will in a meaningful manner."

He added that "the addition of a large gas portfolio opens the door for CEG to be more flexible in meeting future large load demand."

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Joey Solitro is a freelance financial journalist at Kiplinger with more than a decade of experience. A longtime equity analyst, Joey has covered a range of industries for media outlets including The Motley Fool, Seeking Alpha, Market Realist, and TipRanks. Joey holds a bachelor's degree in business administration.