Stock Market Today: Stocks at Record Highs as Earnings Season Ramps Up
Markets continued where they left off last week amid rising optimism over corporate profits.
Stocks hit fresh highs on light volume as a quiet economic calendar and a three-day weekend for the bond market focused market participants' attention on what is forecast to be a strong quarter for corporate profit growth.
Markets continued to power higher Monday, boosted by a strong start to the financial sector's reporting period. Late last week, JPMorgan Chase (JPM), the nation's biggest bank by assets, posted a better-than-expected increase in net interest income (NII) and lifted its forecast for the critical revenue stream. At the same time, Wells Fargo (WFC) reported better-than-expected earnings despite suffering a significant drop in NII.
"Financials will be a focus for the market during the next two weeks, as nearly 50% of the S&P 500 companies that are scheduled to report earnings are part of this sector," writes John Butters, senior earnings analyst at FactSet.
Sign up for Kiplinger’s Free E-Newsletters
Profit and prosper with the best of expert advice on investing, taxes, retirement, personal finance and more - straight to your e-mail.
Profit and prosper with the best of expert advice - straight to your e-mail.
Citigroup (C), Goldman Sachs (GS), Morgan Stanley (MS) and U.S. Bancorp (USB) are just a sample of the major financial firms featured on this week's earnings calendar. Traders note their results and outlooks will help determine market sentiment throughout the week and beyond.
"The S&P 500 has a shot at its first six-week winning streak since the end of 2023, but with a light economic calendar it will probably be up to earnings to deliver more record highs this week," writes Chris Larkin, managing director, trading and investing at E*trade from Morgan Stanley. "The next two to three weeks will show whether the solid economic data we've seen in recent months is translating to corporate balance sheets."
Upside surprise for corporate profits?
Operating earnings ultimately drive share prices, and so it should be welcome news the S&P 500 is not only reporting solid earnings growth, but is on course to surpass expectations.
"The S&P 500 is reporting earnings growth of 4.1% for the third quarter, which would mark the fifth-straight quarter of year-over-year earnings growth rate reported by the index," Butters notes. "Based on the average improvement in the earnings growth rate during the earnings season, the index will likely report year-over-year growth in earnings above 7% for the third quarter."
The energy sector declined on Monday, hurt by a drop in oil prices, but the other 10 sectors of the S&P 500 advanced, with the benchmark index rising 0.8% to finish at 5,859. The blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.5% to 43,065, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite gained 0.9% to 18,502.
Caterpillar dives on downgrade
Caterpilllar (CAT) gapped down as much as 3.5% in early trades before closing off 1.9% after Morgan Stanley downgraded the Dow Jones stock to Underweight (Sell) from Equal Weight (Hold). The world's largest manufacturer of heavy construction and mining equipment is exposed to a downturn in domestic non-residential construction activity, and now faces a "potential de-stocking downturn for U.S. construction equipment," notes analyst Angel Castillo.
The stock's year-to-date outperformance and a valuation that places an "above mid-cycle multiple" on what are close to peak earnings "suggests a negative risk-reward" scenario for shares, Castillo adds.
Castillo is hardly alone on Wall Street when it comes to becoming more cautious on CAT stock. Shares are up by a third on a price basis so far this year, leading the S&P 500 by about 10 percentage points. Meanwhile, CAT's valuation does look a bit stretched, at least on comparative terms. CAT stock changes hands at more than 18 times analysts' 2025 earnings per share forecast. That represents more than a 5% premium to their own five-year average, according to data from LSEG Stock Reports Plus.
Perhaps more concerning is how fast CAT stock is rising relative to its prospects for earnings growth. On that basis, Caterpillar shares trade at 37% premium to the S&P 500, per LSEG data.
Either way, the Street is collectively sitting on the sidelines with this name. Of the 26 analysts covering CAT surveyed by S&P Global Market Intelligence, seven call it a Strong Buy, three say Buy, 11 have it at Hold, one has it at Sell and one calls it a Strong Sell. That works out to a consensus recommendation of Hold.
Related content
- Analysts' Top S&P 500 Stocks to Buy Now
- Best Dividend Stocks to Buy for Dependable Dividend Growth
- Rising Prices: Which Goods and Services Are Driving Inflation?
Get Kiplinger Today newsletter — free
Profit and prosper with the best of Kiplinger's advice on investing, taxes, retirement, personal finance and much more. Delivered daily. Enter your email in the box and click Sign Me Up.
Dan Burrows is Kiplinger's senior investing writer, having joined the august publication full time in 2016.
A long-time financial journalist, Dan is a veteran of SmartMoney, MarketWatch, CBS MoneyWatch, InvestorPlace and DailyFinance. He has written for The Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, Consumer Reports, Senior Executive and Boston magazine, and his stories have appeared in the New York Daily News, the San Jose Mercury News and Investor's Business Daily, among other publications. As a senior writer at AOL's DailyFinance, Dan reported market news from the floor of the New York Stock Exchange and hosted a weekly video segment on equities.
Once upon a time – before his days as a financial reporter and assistant financial editor at legendary fashion trade paper Women's Wear Daily – Dan worked for Spy magazine, scribbled away at Time Inc. and contributed to Maxim magazine back when lad mags were a thing. He's also written for Esquire magazine's Dubious Achievements Awards.
In his current role at Kiplinger, Dan writes about equities, fixed income, currencies, commodities, funds, macroeconomics, demographics, real estate, cost of living indexes and more.
Dan holds a bachelor's degree from Oberlin College and a master's degree from Columbia University.
Disclosure: Dan does not trade stocks or other securities. Rather, he dollar-cost averages into cheap funds and index funds and holds them forever in tax-advantaged accounts.
-
How to Rank Your Financial Priorities
Circumstances are different for everyone, but this adviser with 20-plus years of experience shares some insights on getting your financial priorities in order.
By Andrew Rosen, CFP®, CEP Published
-
Can You Define Baby Boomers? Look at Trump and Harris
Trump and Harris are bookends of the sprawling Baby Boomer generation, which spans 18 years. No wonder they have different world views.
By Elaine Silvestrini Published
-
How to Rank Your Financial Priorities
Circumstances are different for everyone, but this adviser with 20-plus years of experience shares some insights on getting your financial priorities in order.
By Andrew Rosen, CFP®, CEP Published
-
Medicare or Medicare Advantage: Which Is Right for You?
From overall costs to availability of care, here's what to know about the differences between traditional Medicare and Medicare Advantage plans.
By Paola Bianchi Delp Published
-
Wealth Is More Than Just Your Money: How to Manage It All
In addition to handling your financial wealth, consider ways to manage your non-financial assets: health, knowledge, time and relationships.
By Jennifer Wines, JD, CPWA® Published
-
Stock Market Today: Stocks Hit Fresh Highs on Bank Earnings, Econ News
Strong corporate profits and benign economic data once again sent equities to record levels.
By Dan Burrows Published
-
You're 60 Years Old With $1 Million Saved: Can You Retire?
The answer depends on several factors. The key is to create a plan that combines all aspects of retirement — income, taxes, health care and legacy planning.
By Joe F. Schmitz Jr., CFP®, ChFC® Published
-
Are You a Danger When You Drive?
You might be shaking your head no, but read on for the five things that most of us have at some point done, or are doing, that could cause an accident.
By Karl Susman, CPCU, LUTCF, CIC, CSFP, CFS, CPIA, AAI-M, PLCS Published
-
Stock Market Today: Markets Slip on Hot Inflation Print, Layoff News
Economic data continues to complicate expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts.
By Dan Burrows Published
-
CPI Report Points to Gradual Pace for Rate Cuts: What the Experts Are Saying
CPI Inflation surprised to the upside last month but the disinflation trend remains on track.
By Dan Burrows Published