Stock Market Today: Stocks Slip Ahead of Election Day, Fed Decision

Stocks opened lower Monday and recovered but ultimately finished in the red during the last regular trading session before Election Day in the U.S. Underneath the surface, one Magnificent 7 stock replaced another atop the global market capitalization rankings. Looming too is a Federal Open Market Committee decision on Thursday.

Starting with the single-stock news. Nvidia (NVDA) added 0.5% after the S&P Dow Jones said the semiconductor stock will replace Intel (INTC), which was down 2.9%, in the 30-stock Dow Jones Industrial Average as of the open this Friday, November 8. Dan Burrows covers everything you need to know about NVDA replacing INTC in the Dow.

Nvidia is now the No. 1 company in the world by market cap, surpassing Apple (AAPL), which declined 0.4% after Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) revealed the sale of approximately 25% of its AAPL position, or 100 million shares.

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Buffett and Berkshire now hold about 300 million shares of AAPL stock, with a market value as of September 30 of $69.9 billion. They've reduced their ownership stake by 67.2% since the end of Q3 2023.

The Oracle of Omaha and his firm, which also unloaded a significant portion of their Bank of America (BAC) stake, are now sitting on a cash pile of $352.2 billion, according to Berkshire's Q3 2024 earnings release.

On the last day of the U.S. presidential campaign, the Dow closed lower by 0.6% to 41,794. The S&P 500 traded around the breakeven line for much of the session before settling down 0.3% at 5,712. The Nasdaq Composite, meanwhile, lost 0.3% to close at 18,179.

Stocks on the move

Tesla (TSLA) stock declined more than 2% on the eve of an election during which the electric vehicle (EV) maker's CEO has played an extraordinary role in the Republican presidential campaign.

Indeed, TSLA extended its losing streak to six straight days – the longest since April – taking the stock into negative territory for the year.

"We believe a Trump presidency would be an overall negative for the EV industry as likely the EV rebates and tax incentives get pulled," says Wedbush Daniel Ives. Ives sees a Trump win as a potential positive for TSLA, though, with some caveats.

"Tesla has the scale and scope that is unmatched in the EV industry, and this dynamic could give Musk and Tesla a clear competitive advantage in a non-EV subsidy environment, coupled with likely higher China tariffs that would continue to push away cheaper Chinese EV players from flooding the U.S. market over the coming years," Ives notes.

In the case of a Harris win, Ives expects the EV tax credits will remain in place "and ultimately increased in 2025 as the goal to get more U.S. consumers towards EVs would be a laser focus in a Harris administration."

Constellation Energy (CEG) stock fell more than 12% after the clean energy producer beat top- and bottom-line expectations for its third quarter but was dogged by a Federal Energy Regulatory Commission decision to reject a nuclear power proposal from Amazon.com (AMZN).

Even after today's decline, CEG stock has nearly doubled so far this year.

Viking Therapeutics (VKTX) stock was highly volatile in the day's trading session, gapping up by 7% at the open but ending the day down 13% after the biopharmaceutical company reported positive data for its weight-loss pill.

Investors assess election uncertainty

Amid a relatively light day for economic data, the Census Bureau said this morning that orders for new manufactured goods were down by 0.5% month-over-month in September to $584.2 billion, in line with the consensus forecast. Factory orders declined by 0.8% in August and have been down four of the past five months.

Following a softer-than-expected October jobs report, futures traders are pricing in a 98% probability the Federal Reserve will cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points (bps) during its meeting this week, according to CME Group's FedWatch Tool.

The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note reversed course after rising for weeks and declined by nine basis points to 4.302% from Friday's close at 4.397%, posting its biggest one-day decline in two months. (A basis point = 0.01%.)

Meanwhile, the ICE BofA MOVE Index (MOVE), a measure of bond market volatility, reached its highest level in a year on Monday, as investors adjust bets ahead of the election and the FOMC announcement.

We continue to track campaign trail developments as they relate to your portfolio and your pocketbook on our live election blog.

Jobs growth slumps in September

Over on the economic calendar, data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed the U.S. added just 12,000 jobs in October, well below economists' estimates for 113,000 new positions. Jobs growth for August and September was downwardly revised by 112,000 jobs combined.

There was plenty of noise in this report thanks to recent hurricanes in Florida and the Boeing (BA) worker strike. However, there were some continuing signs of stability and resilience, "notably a steady unemployment rate with robust earnings growth," says Scott Anderson, chief U.S. economist at BMO Capital Markets.

In other economic news, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said its Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) fell to 46.5% in October from 47.2% in September.

The index "has now signaled contraction [readings below 50] in activity for practically two-straight years," says Wells Fargo Economist Tim Quinlan. "But the simple need to replace equipment combined with some clarity in the post-election environment should be supportive of coming capital expenditure plans."

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