Stocks struggled on the first trading day of 2025 as market participants dropped riskier assets amid rising trade tensions and a stronger dollar. As usual, some of the market's biggest tech names did the most damage.
Markets extended their post-holiday slide on light volume amid a shortened trading week. Meanwhile, the anticipated Santa Claus Rally has yet to materialize – and is running out of time to get rallying.
"After a two-year run that was the best since the 90s – albeit going out with a whimper in December – stocks are trying to start the new year with a solid gain," writes Louis Navellier, chairman and chief investment officer at Navellier. "Now only the next two days are part of the usually reliable Santa Claus Rally. January in general is when many institutional funds start taking new positions for the new year strategy."
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The incoming administration's tariff policies are also complicating strategies and positioning as we start the new year. A stronger dollar is symptomatic of this stress, writes José Torres, senior economist at Interactive Brokers.
"Today's performance underscores the tradeoffs and vulnerabilities of mounting tensions between Washington and Beijing," Torres notes. "The U.S. is engaging in tit-for-tat trade jabs with its Far East counterpart even before the new administration takes hold. Against this backdrop of adversarial trade postures, the dollar is trading at a 26-month high as currency traders factor in higher costs and restrictions for international commerce."
In economic news, initial claims for unemployment benefits dropped to 211,000 for the week ended December 28, the Labor Department said, beating expectations for claims to come in at 222,000. Continuing claims ticked down to 1.84 million for the seven days ended December 21, below economists' median forecast for 1.89 million.
"The U.S. labor market remains on solid footing," Torres adds, "with four-week moving average trends moving south for initial and continuing jobless claims amidst an unemployment rate hovering near historical lows."
At the closing bell, the blue chip Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.4% to 42,392, while the broader S&P 500 declined 0.2% to 5,868. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite shed 0.2% to finish at 19,280.
Tesla dumps $320 billion in value in two weeks
Tesla (TSLA) stock continued a descent that began on December 17, shedding another 6.1% on Thursday. The proximate cause for the selloff was the electric vehicle (EV) maker's marked sales weakness.
Tesla reported fourth-quarter vehicle production of approximately 459,000 vehicles, delivered over 495,000 vehicles and deployed 11.0 GWh of energy storage products – a "record for both deliveries and deployments," the company said.
However, Tesla also reported its first-ever year-over-year decline in car sales. CEO Elon Musk's support for the incoming president helped Tesla stock pop after the presidential election, but some of the initial enthusiasm has since faded. That's partly attributable to the dozens of competing and often cheaper EVs being introduced in China, Europe and the U.S.
The fact that a Tesla Cybertruck was used in a terrorist attack outside of the Trump Las Vegas hotel on January 1 may also have had an effect on sentiment.
At any rate, TSLA stock has shed about $320 billion in market cap since hitting an all-time closing high on December 17. For context, that's greater than the entire market values of Dow Jones stocks such as Coca-Cola (KO), Salesforce (CRM) or Chevron (CVX).
Is TSLA stock a Buy at current levels? Wall Street is split on the name. Of the 47 industry analysts issuing opinions on Tesla stock surveyed by S&P Global Market Intelligence, 13 rate it at Strong Buy, six say Buy, 15 have it at Hold, four call it a Sell and nine rate it at Strong Sell. That works out to a consensus recommendation of Hold.
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