The race for the White House is down to its last two months, meaning the election campaigns for both Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump and Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris are really starting to heat up.
While the actual winner of the election doesn't have a direct impact on the stock market, that person's policies can benefit or hinder certain sectors and industries.
Take Trump's reversal on cryptocurrency. In his first run as president, Trump made clear he was not a fan of digital assets. Indeed, in July 2019, he posted on what was Twitter at the time, now X, that the value of cryptocurrencies are "highly volatile and based on thin air. Unregulated Crypto Assets can facilitate unlawful behavior, including drug trade and other illegal activity."
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However, in August of this year, Trump once again took to X to announce he will unveil a "plan to ensure the United States will be the crypto capital of the planet." While details have yet to be announced, any initiatives or policies in a potential Trump administration could create tailwinds for cryptocurrencies, as well as bitcoin and crypto ETFs.
But crypto isn't the only area of the market that could get a lift if Donald Trump wins the election. Indeed, here are five stocks to buy for a Trump presidency, representing the defense, fossil fuel, prisons, steel and banking industries.
We also looked at stocks to buy for a Harris presidency, so you have ideas for whichever way the election goes.
JPMorgan Chase
- Market value: $604.5 billion
- Sector: Financial services
- Industry: Banks - Diversified
- One-year total return: 53.7%
- Three-year total return (annualized): 14.1%
- Five-year total return (annualized): 17.5%
JPMorgan Chase (JPM) had $3.4 trillion in total assets as of June 30, 2024, making it the biggest U.S. bank by assets – and one of the world's largest financial institutions.
During the previous Trump administration, the former president was relatively good to the banking industry, favoring deregulation and a hands-off approach to overseeing financial institutions.
"Trump was also able to enact significant changes throughout the banking industry during his tenure in the White House," wrote American Banker contributor Frank Gargano in July. "While in office, Trump unwound the Department of Housing and Urban Development's Affirmatively Furthering Fair Housing rule, instituted temporary stoppages of evictions and foreclosures on HUD-backed properties and passed a regulatory relief bill that included numerous pro-banking reforms."
JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon recently gave some advice to both Trump and Harris. The CEO wants to see whoever wins in November unite the country by being completely transparent with the American people about its problems and listening to input and analysis from both the left and the right.
"America has all the advantages, and we can win the future with smart policy, courageous leaders and everyone with a seat at the table moving in concert," Dimon wrote in an August 2 op-ed for The Washington Post. "We need to elect a president who is dedicated to the ideals that define and unite us, and who is committed to restoring our faith in America and our indispensable role in the world."
As for the financial stock, analysts generally like it. Of the 23 analysts following JPM that are tracked by S&P Global Market Intelligence, eight say it's a Strong Buy, eight have it at Buy, six call it a Hold and one say it's a Sell. This works out to a consensus Buy recommendation.
Speaking for the bulls is Argus Research analyst Stephen Biggar, who has a Buy rating on the Dow Jones stock. "We like JPM among the large banks given its better lending-growth profile, strong credit-card franchise, and expected market-share gains in its capital-markets businesses," the analyst wrote in a recent note, adding that JPM is undervalued at current levels.
Lockheed Martin
- Market value: $135.1 billion
- Sector: Industrials
- Industry: Aerospace & Defense
- One-year total return: 31.2%
- Three-year total return (annualized): 20.1%
- Five-year total return (annualized): 11.0%
Over the years, the consensus has been that defense stocks benefit from Republican administrations. Donald Trump is especially hawkish about defending American interests.
Further, he's not inclined to continue providing military support to NATO members that don't spend 2% of their gross domestic product (GDP), as the alliance requires. He might like to see the amount raised to 3% if he takes office in January 2025.
Between the wars in Ukraine and Israel, global conflicts have become a part of everyday life. And continued geopolitical uncertainty could benefit Lockheed Martin (LMT), which manufactures F-35 fighter aircraft.
Although there were some concerns about Trump's commitment to the F-35 early in his presidency, by July 2019, he was more than happy to support the workers building the F-35.
"From here in Milwaukee, you are supporting magnificent aircraft, and soon you'll support the unstoppable, stealth F-35 Lightning II," said President Trump in a July 2019 visit to Derco, a Lockheed company providing parts warehousing and distribution sustainment for the aircraft.
As for the industrial stock, Wall Street is bullish. Half of the 22 analysts following LMT that are tracked by S&P Global Market Intelligence say it's a Buy or Strong Buy. Of the remaining analysts, 10 call it a Hold and one has it at Sell. This works out to a consensus Buy recommendation.
Argus Research analyst John Eade is one of those with a Buy rating on Lockheed Martin.
"The company has consistently delivered positive surprises to the Street in recent years, regardless of whether defense expenditure is rising or falling, or a Republican or a Democrat occupies the White House," Eade says. "We have a favorable view of the company's focus on international revenue diversification (now more than 25% of sales), and expect ongoing geopolitical tensions to benefit sales and earnings going forward."
Exxon Mobil
- Market value: $500.4 billion
- Sector: Energy
- Industry: Oil & Gas Integrated
- One-year total return: 3.2%
- Three-year total return (annualized): 32.1%
- Five-year total return (annualized): 15.6%
It's unlikely Trump will tap current Exxon Mobil (XOM) CEO Darren Woods as secretary of state if he wins the election. Woods succeeded Rex Tillerson as CEO of the energy giant on January 1, 2017, after the former president nominated Tillerson as the chief foreign affairs adviser.
Interestingly, while Trump has always been the anti-regulation candidate, the oil and gas industry could do well no matter who emerges as the victor in November.
After all, in an August 2 commentary in Barron's, financial journalist Patti Domm noted that the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE) has doubled since the Biden administration took office in January 2021. Domm argues that energy stocks should do well under both candidates.
"If elected, Trump is expected to strip away the Biden ban on new liquefied natural gas projects, which is now being challenged in court. That ban was seen by many in the industry as a temporary, politically motivated policy aimed at appeasing younger voters and others concerned with climate and environmental issues," Domm wrote, adding that the ban has not gone over well in the key swing state of Pennsylvania, where "natural gas fracking is an important business."
Exxon Mobil's fracking business just happens to drill in the Appalachian Basin in Pennsylvania and neighboring West Virginia.
XOM stock is holding its own against the broad market – up more than 17% for the year to date through the September 5 close on a total return (price change plus dividend basis). This is roughly on par with the S&P 500's return.
But UBS Global Research analyst Josh Silverstein (Buy) sees even more upside, as evidenced by his $157 price target, which sits nearly 40% above Exxon Mobil's recent close.
There are "multiple positive drivers across XOM's business over the next five years – visible Upstream growth, new Downstream capacity additions, ramping Low Carbon investments, and cost reductions," Silverstein says, adding that Exxon Mobil remains one of the best stocks to buy in the energy sector over the next half-decade or so.
Nucor
- Market value: $32.9 billion
- Sector: Basic materials
- Industry: Steel
- One-year total return: -17.0%
- Three-year total return (annualized): 8.6%
- Five-year total return (annualized): 25.3%
Nucor (NUE) and its steel industry peers could use some good news. HRC (hot-rolled coil) steel was trading near $2,000 an ounce in August 2021. It now trades for less than a third of that amount.
As a result, U.S. steelmakers are experiencing slower sales and lower profits. In Nucor's case, its revenue in the six months ended June 29 was $16.2 billion, 11% lower than in the same period a year ago. Meanwhile, its net earnings per share were $6.14, 40% lower than at the end of Q2 2023.
"While market conditions have softened compared to recent record-setting years, Nucor remains focused on its long-term growth strategy and has returned more than $1.7 billion to investors through June," said Nucor CEO Leon Topalian in its second-quarter earnings release.
However, the tides could turn for NUE if Trump wins the election. Indeed, American steelmakers could benefit from the Trump administration's anticipated 10% tariff on all imported products as it could create lesser price competition from the Chinese and Brazilian steelmakers.
The materials stock could certainly use a boost, considering its share price is down roughly 20% for the year to date at last check. But Argus' Eade says this recent weakness presents a buying opportunity for investors.
"We view Nucor as a well-run company with a strong track record in its industry," Eade says. "The company is poised to take advantage of megatrends such as the rebuilding of U.S. infrastructure, the transition to alternative energy sources, and manufacturing onshoring."
The analyst admits that the company's financials have been hurt by lower demand and inflationary pressures, but adds that "the balance sheet is clean and management has experience navigating difficult conditions."
GEO Group
- Market value: $1.8 billion
- Sector: Industrials
- Industry: Security & Protection Services
- One-year total return: 81.0%
- Three-year total return (annualized): 18.7%
- Five-year total return (annualized): -2.1%
GEO Group (GEO) is the smallest of the five stocks expected to benefit from a Trump presidency. The company designs and delivers support services for prisons, immigration processing centers and community reentry centers.
Founded in 1984, Geo Group is best known for its ICE (Immigration and Customs Enforcement) processing centers and USMS (U.S. Marshals Service) detention centers.
The company has shown steady growth on the financial charts. In its second-quarter results, Geo Group said revenue was up 2.2% year-over-year to $607.2 million, while its adjusted net income was $30.1 million, or 3.4% higher than Q2 2023.
On the price charts, however, GEO has been much more volatile. Indeed, the small-cap stock was up nearly 66% for the year to date in mid-July but has since cut this gain to 22%.
Wedbush Securities analysts think this erratic price action will continue through the November 5 election. In an August 2 research note, the group writes that GEO stock's volatility has been "driven largely, in our view, by the rapidly changing political landscape." They say that while this will likely continue over the next several months, they "remain focused on underlying fundamental trends heading into the prints."
Wedbush has an Outperform (Buy) rating on GEO stock and a $19 price target, which is nearly 45% higher than its current share price.
As for GEO's place on this list of the stocks to buy for a Trump presidency, a July report from CREW (Citizens for Ethics) indicated that the private prison group has made significant political contributions over the years to Trump and Republican causes.
"GEO Group has a long history of disproportionately supporting Trump and other Republican candidates," the report says. "If re-elected, Trump has also promised to carry out an extreme immigration agenda that includes detaining undocumented people already in the United States in 'vast holding facilities' yet to be built."
In other words, a Trump presidency is expected to lead to GEO Group winning more contracts, which could help reignite its growth.
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