Federal government shutdowns aren't bad for stocks, at least historically speaking.
Although the market hates the threat of a federal government shutdown – an outcome that looks increasingly possible later this month – the S&P 500's performance during past shutdowns has been pretty good.
If our latest brush with a government shutdown seems particularly irksome, it may be because markets are desperately trying to discount the path of interest rates for 2025.
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The Federal Reserve enacted what's being called a "hawkish pause" at the last Fed meeting. Although the quarter-point rate cut the central bank delivered was widely expected, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) essentially halved its expectations for easing next year.
This has changed the forecast for asset prices in 2025, which helps explain why the Dow Jones Industrial Average shed more than 1,000 points on the Fed news, while bonds caught a bid.
"The actual cut was the least important component of the December FOMC meeting," says Jack McIntyre, portfolio manager at Brandywine Global. "When you include the forward guidance components, it was a 'hawkish cut.' Stronger expected growth married with higher anticipated inflation – it's no wonder the Fed reduced the number of expected rate cuts in 2025."
McIntyre adds that the Fed has entered "a new phase of monetary policy – the pause phase." The longer the pause phase persists, the more likely market participants will have to equally price a rate hike vs a rate cut.
"Policy uncertainty will make for more volatile financial markets in 2025," the portfolio manager notes.
Given this backdrop for equities, it's fair to say that dysfunction in D.C. doesn't help.
Stock performance during government shutdowns
Happily, for market participants, the historical record for stocks when the federal government shuts down is far from one of doom and gloom.
There have been 21 government shutdowns since 1976, but on only four occasions were operations affected for more than one business day, writes Jeffrey Buchbinder, chief equity strategist at LPL Financial. That leaves us with only four "true" shutdowns, Buchbinder notes, the last occurring in late 2018 into early 2019.
It's tough to remember now, but the S&P 500 returned 10.3% during the 35-day shutdown of 2018-2019. Have a look at the chart below:
Stocks did fine during the extended shutdown of October 2013 too.
"Historically, markets were not materially impacted by a shutdown," Buchbinder says. "For example, in 2013, the House and Senate were in a standoff over funding for the so-called Affordable Care Act and the government was shut down for 16 days during the first part of October. The S&P 500 had some down days but overall, the equity market took all the political drama in stride with a 3.1% advance during those 16 days."
It's sort of counterintuitive, but during the 21 government shutdowns, the S&P 500 rose 55% of the time, generating an average return of 0.3%, according to data from Carson Group. Even better, 12 months after the end of the shutdown, the S&P 500 was higher 86% of the time, with an average return of 12.7%.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results, but the record for stocks in government shutdowns is almost encouraging. When the last federal government shutdown ended in 2019, the S&P 500 went on to return almost 24% over the next 12 months. There are probably plenty of market participants who would take that deal again.
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