The yield on the 10-year Treasury increased 1.6 basis points to reach 4.258% on Wednesday afternoon, up from 4.22% on Tuesday. This is the highest level the yield has reached since June 13, 2008; according to MarketWatch, at Thursday’s level, the rate was on track to reach its highest level since Dec. 26, 2007. Additionally, the 30-year Treasury yield increased 3.2 basis points from 4.359% to 4.391% on Wednesday. On Thursday, the 30-year rate was on its way to establishing a 12-year high.
On Thursday, the 10-year Treasury yield rose to over 4.31%, the highest level it’s been since the 2007-2008 global financial crisis. And as inflation-adjusted bond yields hit their highest level in 15 years, they’re “threatening steeper costs for many borrowers and raising concern on Wall Street about the potential fallout in the stock, bond and housing markets," reports the Wall Street Journal. "Though they don’t have to hurt stocks if investors are simultaneously lifting their outlook for corporate profits, they can reduce the appeal of riskier assets by offering investors a more attractive risk-free return if they hold Treasurys to maturity."
Investors anticipate that the Federal Reserve will need to keep interest rates higher for longer and that even more interest rate hikes may be needed, in order to bring inflation down to its 2% target. In fact, according to the CME FedWatch tool, Markets are pricing in an 86.5% probability that at their next meeting in September, the Fed will leave interest rates as they currently are. Markets are pricing in a 37% chance that there will be a 25-basis-point rate hike at the meeting in November.
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At their last meeting, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the 11th time since March 2022, bringing the federal funds rate to a target range of 5.25% to 5.50%. In their policy statement, the Federal Reserve stated they were "strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2 percent objective."
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