Odds of Republicans Retaking the Senate Gain Momentum

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published 6 March 2024

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The odds of the Republicans retaking the Senate this fall continue to improve. The Democrats already faced a daunting task, defending 23 seats this year — three in states won by Donald Trump in 2020 — versus only 11 seats for the GOP.

The party has done well with candidate recruitment. In Wisconsin, for one, wealthy banker Eric Hovde will be the most formidable Republican in some time to take on incumbent Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D). The Montana GOP avoided a messy primary fight and is now unified behind Trump endorsee Tim Sheehy, who will face Jon Tester (D). Former hedge fund CEO David McCormick will try for Bob Casey’s (D) seat in Pennsylvania.

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At least one Senate seat is almost certain to flip: West Virginia. The GOP nominee should easily dispatch the Democratic opponent, given Joe Manchin’s (D) retirement. Others are more difficult to handicap at this point.

In wildcard Arizona, the GOP is going all in on backing Kari Lake, a far cry from her failed 2022 gubernatorial race when the national party kept the outspoken Trump supporter at arm’s length. Her likely Democratic opponent is Rep. Ruben Gallego. Incumbent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, a former Democrat who switched to independent status in late 2022, has announced she won’t run for reelection.

Republicans also have put themselves in winnable positions in other Senate battleground states:
Ohio Democratic incumbent Sen. Sherrod Brown holds slim leads in polling against several Republican candidates in a race that’s considered a tossup.

In Nevada, another tossup state, Republican Sam Brown is polling neck and neck with incumbent Sen. Jacky Rosen (D).

And keep an eye on Maryland, where popular former Governor Larry Hogan is running for the Republican nomination. Even Hogan may not be able to win in deep-blue Maryland, but he will force Democrats to devote precious time and resources to the state.

Note that the GOP needs to pick up only two seats to retake the chamber, and only one if a Republican is elected president.

This forecast first appeared in The Kiplinger Letter, which has been running since 1923 and is a collection of concise weekly forecasts on business and economic trends, as well as what to expect from Washington, to help you understand what’s coming up to make the most of your investments and your money. Subscribe to The Kiplinger Letter.

Sean Lengell covers Congress and government policy for The Kiplinger Letter. Before joining Kiplinger in January 2017 he served as a congressional reporter for eight years with the Washington Examiner and the Washington Times. He previously covered local news for the Tampa (Fla.) Tribune. A native of northern Illinois who spent much of his youth in St. Petersburg, Fla., he holds a bachelor's degree in English from Marquette University.