Taking Stock of the Presidential Race: The Kiplinger Letter

(Image credit: Alexi J. Rosenfeld/Greg Nash-Pool/Getty Images)

published 19 July 2024

To help you understand what is going on in politics, our highly experienced Kiplinger Letter team will keep you abreast of the latest developments and forecasts (Get a free issue of The Kiplinger Letter or subscribe). You'll get all the latest news first by subscribing, but we will publish many (but not all) of the forecasts a few days afterward online. Here’s the latest…

In the aftermath of an assassination attempt on former President Trump, the first time in 40 years that either an officeholder or a candidate has been shot, let’s take stock of the presidential race.

Donald Trump dodged a bullet last week, escaping from a campaign rally in Pennsylvania with only minor injuries after a shooter’s bullet grazed his ear and ultimately killed an attendee. The country narrowly averted a tragedy. And a crisis. There is no telling what would have transpired, had Trump been killed.

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Now, Trump wants to strike a new tone, promising a more unifying message to voters amid an election year already marked by rancor. Color us skeptical. Previous Trump attempts to rein in his natural, combative style haven’t lasted.

Many voters appreciate his confrontational instincts. Trump will likely benefit if he can pull it off.

Either way, he will receive a jolt of support in the short term, stemming from both the attempt on his life and a presidential candidate’s usual bump in the polls after his or her party’s convention. His pick of Senator J.D. Vance (R-OH) as running mate suggests that Trump is still interested in having a vice president who knows how to go on the offensive against Democrats.

Recent events have done little to relieve the pressure on President Biden. He has been bleeding support from congressional Democrats — plus voters and donors — concerned about his age and performance in recent public appearances.

The president has very few heavy hitters in his corner. Representative Nancy Pelosi (D-CA), the influential former House speaker, is among those encouraging him to drop out.

Biden has remained stubborn and will likely hold out as long as he can, perhaps long enough to officially secure the nomination at the Democratic convention. But there are signs his resolve is wavering, as the backlash within his party intensifies. It’s tough for even the stubbornest of politicians to survive without friends.

Trump continues to lead in most national and battleground state polls. But the bottom has not yet dropped out for Biden, bolstering his case for staying in the race, even as voters increasingly prefer veep Kamala Harris.

One possible indicator that Biden really is losing the race to Trump: Democratic Senate candidates are generally polling well in swing states and those that backed Trump by a significant margin (with some notable exceptions). This could be a sign that voters want and/or expect Trump to win in November and would like more Democratic senators to serve as a check on the White House. Democrats are also roughly tied with Republicans on the generic ballot, a rough measure of which party voters would prefer to be in control of Congress.

This forecast first appeared in The Kiplinger Letter, which has been running since 1923 and is a collection of concise weekly forecasts on business and economic trends, as well as what to expect from Washington, to help you understand what’s coming up to make the most of your investments and your money. Subscribe to The Kiplinger Letter.

Housiaux covers the White House and state and local government for The Kiplinger Letter. Before joining Kiplinger in June 2016, he lived in Sioux Falls, SD, where he was the forum editor of Augustana University's student newspaper, the Mirror. He also contributed stories to the Borgen Project, a Seattle-based nonprofit focused on raising awareness of global poverty. He earned a B.A. in history and journalism from Augustana University.