To help you understand what's happening in the election race and what we expect to happen in the future, our highly experienced Kiplinger Letter team will keep you abreast of the latest developments and forecasts (Get a free issue of The Kiplinger Letter or subscribe). You'll get all the latest news first by subscribing, but we will publish many (but not all) of the forecasts a few days afterward online. Here’s the latest…
Just days before the election, Donald Trump seems to have a slight edge.
Some polls show Trump with a thin lead in this year’s seven toss-up states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Others show Harris narrowly ahead in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Note that all these results are within the margin of error.
Harris hopes her robust get-out-the-vote operation will help close the gap. Regardless of the White House winner, the GOP is poised to control Congress.
Sign up for Kiplinger’s Free E-Newsletters
Profit and prosper with the best of expert advice on investing, taxes, retirement, personal finance and more - straight to your e-mail.
Profit and prosper with the best of expert advice - straight to your e-mail.
The big question hanging over this election, as in 2016 and 2020, is the polls.
If they underestimate Trump as they did then, he will win fairly handily, possibly even exceeding his 2016 total of 306 electoral votes against Hillary Clinton. Some polling aggregators even show Trump breaking his so-called ceiling of support: He’s never eclipsed 47% of the national popular vote, but surveys show him with 48%.
We expect a significantly closer election, given our on-the-ground reporting.
North Carolina is one candidate to be for 2024 what Florida was for 2000: Trump leads, but Harris may have an opening if unpopular Republican gubernatorial candidate Mark Robinson helps spur Democratic turnout.
Pennsylvania is another. Notably, Pennsylvania is also one of the states where polls underestimated Democrats in 2022.
In this scenario, don’t be surprised if third-party candidates play spoiler. The Green Party’s Jill Stein threatens Democrats in states like Michigan, where Harris has already lost the support of huge numbers of Arab-American voters over her stance on Israel. Also on the ballot in Michigan: Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Despite dropping out of the race and backing Trump, he could still siphon votes from both candidates.
This forecast first appeared in The Kiplinger Letter, which has been running since 1923 and is a collection of concise weekly forecasts on business and economic trends, as well as what to expect from Washington, to help you understand what’s coming up to make the most of your investments and your money. Subscribe to The Kiplinger Letter.
Related content
-
Elements of a Financial Snapshot for High-Net-Worth IndividualsDiscover how to assess and optimize your finances with the elements of a high-net-worth financial snapshot.
-
Why Digitizing Your Tax Records Can Simplify Your Filing in 2025Tax Records If you can, switching from paper to e-filing your taxes can have many benefits.
-
2025 Stocks Forecast: What Stock Pros Expect This YearThe jury's out on the 2025 stocks forecast: will investors enjoy higher interest rates that dampen the market, or another year of double-digit returns?
-
How to Avoid These 10 Retirement Planning MistakesMany retirement planning mistakes are easily avoidable. Here are 10 to have on your radar so you don't end up running out of money in your golden years.
-
Before the Next Time Markets Sink, Do Your Lifeboat DrillsAn eventual market crash is inevitable. We can't predict when, but preparing for the ups and downs of investing is imperative. Here's what to do.
-
What Are Passive Income Strategies and How Can I Use Them in 2025?An extended period of rising prices has everyone looking for a little more cash to make ends meet.
-
This Late-in-Life Roth Conversion Opportunity Spares Your HeirsExpensive medical care in the later stages of life is an unpleasant reality for many, but it can open a window for a Roth conversion that benefits your heirs.
-
Women, What Is Your Net Worth?Many women have no idea what their net worth is, or even how to calculate it. Many also turn to social media finfluencers for advice. Here's what to do instead.
-
Stock Market Today: Stocks Jump Ahead of Trump InaugurationThe Dow and S&P 500 scored their biggest weekly gains since the early November election.
-
SLB Stock Jumps on Earnings, Dividend Hike and Buyback NewsSLB stock is soaring Friday after the energy firm reported strong fourth-quarter earnings and unveiled several shareholder-friendly initiatives.
