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Just days before the election, Donald Trump seems to have a slight edge.
Some polls show Trump with a thin lead in this year’s seven toss-up states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin. Others show Harris narrowly ahead in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Note that all these results are within the margin of error.
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Harris hopes her robust get-out-the-vote operation will help close the gap.
Regardless of the White House winner, the GOP is poised to control Congress.
The big question hanging over this election, as in 2016 and 2020, is the polls.
If they underestimate Trump as they did then, he will win fairly handily, possibly even exceeding his 2016 total of 306 electoral votes against Hillary Clinton. Some polling aggregators even show Trump breaking his so-called ceiling of support: He’s never eclipsed 47% of the national popular vote, but surveys show him with 48%.
We expect a significantly closer election, given our on-the-ground reporting. North Carolina is one candidate to be for 2024 what Florida was for 2000: Trump leads, but Harris may have an opening if unpopular Republican gubernatorial candidate Mark Robinson helps spur Democratic turnout. Pennsylvania is another. Notably, Pennsylvania is also one of the states where polls underestimated Democrats in 2022.
In this scenario, don’t be surprised if third-party candidates play spoiler. The Green Party’s Jill Stein threatens Democrats in states like Michigan, where Harris has already lost the support of huge numbers of Arab-American voters over her stance on Israel. Also on the ballot in Michigan: Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Despite dropping out of the race and backing Trump, he could still siphon votes from both candidates.
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