To help you understand what's going on in politics and what we expect to happen in the future, our highly experienced Kiplinger Letter team will keep you abreast of the latest developments and forecasts (Get a free issue of The Kiplinger Letter or subscribe). You'll get all the latest news first by subscribing, but we will publish many (but not all) of the forecasts a few days afterward online. Here’s the latest…
There’s still lots of uncertainty about DOGE — the Department of Government Efficiency. The new office in the Trump White House has tried to “move fast and break things” to improve the federal government, in many cases using legally questionable methods. But a concerted agenda is slowly emerging.
So far, DOGE has dismantled federal agencies, most notably USAID — United States Agency for International Development — now in a state of limbo. It’s also laid off thousands of federal workers as a prelude to an even larger reduction-in-force effort that is now under way at various federal agencies.
Legal setbacks
Both efforts have encountered legal setbacks, including a ruling by the conservative Supreme Court requiring the Trump administration to disburse money for already completed foreign aid work. Another judge ordered DOGE to halt further actions against USAID, though the agency can’t resume its work. A lower court says the White House must reinstate 30,000 workers who were fired because of their probationary status.
An expansion of executive power is at stake. The Trump administration seems intent on testing its legal limits, hoping for favorable court rulings that will increase its ability to fire federal workers, impound congressionally appropriated funds and more.
Sign up for Kiplinger’s Free E-Newsletters
Profit and prosper with the best of expert advice on investing, taxes, retirement, personal finance and more - straight to your e-mail.
Profit and prosper with the best of expert advice - straight to your e-mail.
Reduction-in-force initiative
In the meantime, expect DOGE to try doing more things by the book. This includes implementing an even bigger reduction-in-force initiative across several agencies. The Department of Education is in the process of cutting 50% of its staff (roughly 1,900 people) via both layoffs and voluntary retirement. The Department of Veterans Affairs aims to return to its 2019 employment levels (400,000 employees) by shedding around 80,000 jobs. The Department of Defense wants to lose at least 55,000 of its roughly 780,000-strong civilian workforce. The Social Security Administration will look to cut 7,000 of its 57,000 employees.
But note that the traditional RIF process can take months to complete and comes with numerous requirements that open the door to more legal challenges.
DOGE also wants to fast-track efforts to shrink Uncle Sam’s office footprint, terminating hundreds of leases, some of which will expire as soon as this summer. Even here, projected savings may prove short-lived. Some leases will be renegotiated at the urging of agencies that were generally not consulted about the changes.
Slow progress and confusion
The slow pace of progress has proved frustrating for President Trump, whose hunger for quick victories has been stymied by political and legal realities, including fears that the reduction in manpower will hamper government services. So far, DOGE’s actions have mostly sown confusion in Washington. That in itself could help if it discourages people from seeking federal jobs.
This forecast first appeared in The Kiplinger Letter, which has been running since 1923 and is a collection of concise weekly forecasts on business and economic trends, as well as what to expect from Washington, to help you understand what’s coming up to make the most of your investments and your money. Subscribe to The Kiplinger Letter.
Read more
- Social Security Is DOGE's New Target: What You Need to Know
- With DOGE Making Cuts at National Parks, Can You Still Use Your Senior Pass?
- DOGE Gains More Grip on IRS Amid Leadership Reshuffle
- Donald Trump Tests His Limits
-
This One Area of Americans' Retirement Readiness Gets a Bad GradeMillions of Americans score poorly on retirement readiness due to this Achilles' heel. Are you prepared?
-
REAL ID Deadline: What You Need by May 7, 2025Worried about needing a REAL ID soon? Learn more about the requirement, how to get your ID and valid REAL ID alternatives.
-
The AI Doctor Coming to Read Your Test ResultsThe Kiplinger Letter There’s big opportunity for AI tools that analyze CAT scans, MRIs and other medical images. But there are also big challenges that human clinicians and tech companies will have to overcome.
-
The New Space Age Takes OffThe Kiplinger Letter From fast broadband to SOS texting, space has never been more embedded in peoples’ lives. The future is even more exciting for rockets, satellites and emerging space tech.
-
Tariffs Are Paused: Here's What Retirees Should Stock up on NowThe massive China tariff is still in place, but others have been paused for 90 days. That gives retirees a window to stock up on some goods.
-
Are You Ready to Pay More Taxes to Save Social Security?Social Security Across party lines, many believe saving Social Security trumps other financial considerations.
-
Trump's Sweeping New Tariffs Rattle Wall Street, Main StreetThe Kiplinger Letter Trump is promising that the short-term pain of steep new tariffs on imports will spark a manufacturing renaissance. But they pose major risks in the near term.
-
Can a New Manager Cure Vanguard Health Care Fund?Vanguard Health Care Fund has assets of $40.5 billion but has been ailing in recent years. With a new manager in charge, what's the prognosis?
-
‘Are You Better Off Than You Were 71 Days Ago?’ Cory Booker Historic Senate Speech Highlights Tax DebateTax Policy A speech protesting Trump’s policies, including tax plans, breaks U.S. Senate records.
-
U.S. Treasury to Eliminate Paper Checks: What It Means for Tax Refunds, Social SecurityTreasury President Trump signed an executive order forcing the federal government to phase out paper check disbursements by the fall.
