Editor’s note: This is part two of a seven-part series on retirement tax bombs. It dives more deeply into how required minimum distributions (RMDs) from tax-deferred savings can become a snowballing tax liability in retirement. If you missed the introductory article, you may find it helpful to start here.
For the remaining articles in this series, I’ll use a case study of a couple aged 40 who has saved $500,000 combined in pre-tax retirement accounts. Presumably, this couple is tracking well for a secure retirement. After maxing out their retirement plan contributions, they may not have much cash flow left over and may feel like they’re barely making ends meet. I meet couples like this all time. They aren’t rich, they’re simply good savers doing exactly what conventional wisdom has taught them to do.
The couple keeps making the maximum contribution each year ($20,500 each through age 49, then $27,000 from age 50 to 64, which are the current maximums), and each get a $6,000 employer match. I assume contribution limits rise by 2% annually. The couple’s contributions are in growth allocations that earn an annual 7% return. By the time they retire on their 65th birthdays, their retirement accounts will have grown to an impressive $7.3 million! They’re in great shape, right?
Sign up for Kiplinger’s Free E-Newsletters
Profit and prosper with the best of expert advice on investing, taxes, retirement, personal finance and more - straight to your e-mail.
Profit and prosper with the best of expert advice - straight to your e-mail.
Snowballing RMD Income
For simplicity, let’s assume they don’t draw down their pre-tax savings early in retirement, so their tax-deferred savings grows to about $11.9 million by age 72, when they must take their first RMD, which is $435,820. The RMD is 100% taxable, at their ordinary income rate, and by itself may put them in a high tax bracket. As you can see in the chart below, the RMD grows to $533,818 at age 75, $739,569 at age 80, $1 million at age 85 and $1.3 million at age 90.
The RMD income dwarfs their annual Social Security income, which I assume at $36,000 each at age 67, with a 2.0% annual cost of living adjustment.
Most people assume their taxable income in retirement will be very low because they’re not working, and will be receiving only Social Security benefits and perhaps some interest and dividend income. But clearly, if you’ve saved a lot in tax-deferred accounts, your RMD income can be frighteningly large. Meet your retirement tax bomb.
Even though the couple would take $15.6 million in total RMDs from age 72 to 90, their tax liability keeps growing, although at a decreasing rate as the RMDs gets larger. It’s not until age 89 that the RMD exceeds the projected portfolio growth and the tax liability starts shrinking.
Future Tax Rates
As scary as this sounds, think about where future tax rates may be headed. Current tax rates are near historical lows and may be the lowest we'll see for the rest of our lives. Consider solvency issues with Social Security and Medicare, chronic infrastructure issues, exploding deficits, climate change and pandemics. Each of these issues in isolation will require a lot of money to solve. And that doesn't even account for potential policy changes that would tax the wealthy more.
Simply put, paying taxes at today’s low rates may be a bargain compared to deferring, and growing, your tax liabilities into the future.
My next article focuses on problem No. 2: Medicare means testing surcharges.
- Part 1: Is Your Retirement Portfolio a Tax Bomb?
- Part 2: When It Comes to Your RMDs, Be Very, Very Afraid!
- Part 3: RMDs Can Trigger Massive Medicare Means Testing Surcharges
- Part 4: Will Your Kids Inherit a Tax Bomb from You?
- Part 5: How to Defuse a Retirement Tax Bomb, Starting With 1 Simple Move
- Part 6: Using Asset Location to Defuse a Retirement Tax Bomb
- Part 7: Roth Conversions Play Key Role in Defusing a Retirement Tax Bomb
- Bonus article 1: 2 Ways Retirees Can Defuse a Tax Bomb (It’s Not Too Late!)
- Bonus article 2: Can My Pension Trigger a Retirement Tax Bomb?
-
General Mills Stock Is Sinking After An Earnings Beat. Here's WhyGeneral Mills stock is one of the worst S&P 500 stocks Wednesday as weak full-year guidance offsets better-than-expected earnings. Here's what you need to know.
-
New Law Delivers Tax Breaks to Natural Disaster Victims, But Is It Enough?Tax Relief The legislation provides critical tax relief to thousands of natural disaster victims across the country.
-
You've Got a Trust: Now Who Should Be the Successor Trustee?You've set up a trust to protect your assets and your beneficiaries, but you still must choose the right person to execute your wishes. Here's how to do that.
-
Three Ways Fiduciary Financial Planners Put You FirstFiduciary financial advisers are required by law to work in your best interest. Here's how they are key to intentional and efficient financial management.
-
How Long-Term Care Insurance Has Become More FlexibleToday's long-term care insurance offers retirees more appealing options, which can preserve assets and protect the financial stability of a healthier partner.
-
Your Loved One Fell for a Romance Scam: What Not to DoConfronting them probably won't work, but asking them some key questions and urging them to take certain actions could.
-
Three Ways to Help Create Financial Stability for a WidowLoss of a spouse often leads to financial insecurity in retirement. These strategies can help ensure financial stability for the surviving spouse.
-
How to Embrace Personal Growth After a Gray DivorceDivorce at any age is a traumatic event, and resetting psychologically, especially after a late-in-life divorce, is more important than ever.
-
Three 'Yellowstone' Estate Planning LessonsWe can learn a lot from John Dutton's estate planning mistakes. Here are just a few that relate to families in general and family businesses in particular.
-
Claim It Early or Delay? When to Start Taking Social SecurityTiming is everything when it comes to starting Social Security. Here are the top reasons why people choose to delay or take it early, according to one expert.
