The Inflation and Reduction Act (IRA) offers billions of dollars in tax incentives for clean energy adoption, including a federal EV tax credit worth up to $7,500. But did you know that EVs are quite a political issue these days?
Earlier this year, a poll conducted by Third Way found that 55% of Republicans say there is “zero chance” they will buy an electric vehicle compared to 14% of Democrats who say the same thing. Meanwhile, this year’s presidential election is expected to spotlight many issues and perspectives of the presidential nominees, including the EV tax credit.
So…with a tight vote expected this November 5 and the EV tax credit potentially on the line, I started wondering about swing state attitudes toward electric vehicles.
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Are you a Tesla or a gas-powered fan? Are you more General Motors or Toyota? Will your vote have anything to do with where you live and dare I say…what kind of car you prefer to drive?
Related: What the Election Could Mean for the EV Tax Credit
Swing states 2024
Before we delve into attitudes about EVs, it’s good to review the swing state situation for this 2024 election season.
A swing state is any state where the Democratic and Republican candidates have an almost equal chance of winning the vote.
According to USA Facts, a nonpartisan organization, there are often two criteria for determining a swing state:
- States that voted Democrat in 2016 then Republican in 2020, or vice versa
- States that were won by tight margins for either party
Seven states meet one or both of those criteria for the upcoming presidential election: Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.
We’ll examine recent political news, polls, and car sale data for each swing state to determine how people feel about gas-powered vs. electric vehicles.
EV sales by state
Generally, the states listed below seem to drive toward electric vehicles.
Nevada. Earlier this year, a poll through the University of Maryland surveyed 594 Nevada adults with a roughly even split between Democrats and Republicans. It found that 74% of the respondents supported tax credits on electric vehicles, with an even higher percentage supporting clean energy credits. This is big news for a state that doesn’t offer statewide EV tax credit. But the Silver State offers several incentives for owning an EV.
House Representative, Susie Lee (D-Ne.) has also been a proponent of EVs. Lee was one of the representatives who voted to pass the Inflation Reduction Act two years ago, designed to incentivize electric vehicle use.
Speaking of EV sales, Nevada ranked #4 in the 2024 EV index, which highlights state usage of EVs based on several metrics. Nevada’s higher rank was due to a rise in the number of charging stations with greater charging power and an increase in the state's overall EV market share.
Georgia. Georgia is probably the most pro-EV of the swing states due to its high corporate investment. Perhaps this is why the state has become part of what some call the EV “Battery Belt” (a term that came into existence to describe states with concentrated electric manufacturers).
Major automotive companies have set up shop in the Peach State, including:
- Hyundai Motor Company
- Rivian Automotive
- Kia Corporation
Total investment in EV production and talent acquisition of these companies equaled $27.3 billion in the last five years. When Hyundai brought 8,500 jobs into the Georgia market, the state named February 26th: “Hyundai Day.”
Georgia has also ranked tenth highest in Tesla sales, according to a Telsa sales by-state report, indicative of potential future growth in the EV market.
Next, we’ll look at states that seem to prefer gas-powered vehicles.
Are gas cars better than electric?
Generally speaking, the following states seem to prefer gas-powered vehicles over electric ones.
Arizona. A recent poll by the American Fuel and Petrochemical Manufacturers (AFPM) found that Arizona voters are 58% less likely to support candidates who favor gas car bans.
While there isn’t an official gas car ban, President Biden’s Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) proposal supported fewer gas-powered vehicles and more electric vehicles by 2032. That could potentially sway Arizonans toward gas-powered cars, despite their affinity for Tesla vehicles, demonstrated by Arizona ranking #7 in the Tesla sales by state report.
Moreover, industry titan, LG Group, has halted the construction of a battery factory in the state. One of the reasons? Market conditions.
While Teslas appear to be gaining serious ground, the market could be impacted by Arizona’s high EV charging prices. The Ram1500 truck is the most popular car in the state, per a report by autoinsurance.org.
Wisconsin. According to the U.S. Department of Energy, Wisconsin has fewer people registering EVs than many other states. The state has not invested very much in electric vehicle charging ports. There are also no statewide tax credits for Wisconsin residents.
This may be why the market share of electric vehicles is less than 2%.
Wisconsin residents have reported on local news outlets that EVs do not have enough battery life to sustain vehicle usage during the state’s harsh winters. Perhaps this is why likely drivers may prefer Chevrolet Silverado vehicles, according to a Road & Track analysis.
MI, PA, and NC: EV opinion in swing states
Michigan, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina seem to have mixed feelings about electric vehicles vs. gas-powered vehicles.
Pennsylvania. The Coal State didn’t have an electric registration vehicle fee until just recently. Starting in 2025, EV buyers will pay a $200 registration fee, which jumps to $250 in 2026. Pennsylvania also ranks in the lower half of leaders in the EV market, according to the 2024 index.
Despite this, the state has had a nearly 25% increase in electric vehicles, according to a project launched by the U.S. Department of Energy, compared to last year. The state also received $20 million in federal investment for new EVs earlier this year.
North Carolina. North Carolina made news recently when Gov. Roy Cooper (D-N.C.) announced the state is two years ahead of its electric vehicle registration goals. More than 80,000 zero-emission vehicles have been released, up from 10,000 six years ago.
However, this true swing state still charges a $180 fee on top of regular vehicle registration, and, as of last year, many NC drivers reported being skeptical about ordering an EV. According to autoinsurance.org, the top-selling car in North Carolina is the Ford F-Series, though the state ranks almost exactly in the middle in the 2024 EV index, indicating the split on EVs vs. gasoline-powered cars in the state.
Michigan. The Great Lake State, considered part of the so-called “Battery Belt,” has added over 100 new EV charging ports since last year. This year, Michigan added 17 more.
This may be one of the reasons the state is set to receive $18 million in funding from the Department of Energy for EV manufacturing, which is expected to create more jobs and improve the infrastructure for EVs in Michigan.
However, when polled on whether they would support or oppose a gas car ban, 87% of Michigan voters said they would oppose such legislation. While the most popular car in the state is Cheveloret Silverados, according to autoinsurance.org,
Michigan is also the home to the Ford Motor Company’s headquarters, contributing to the popularity of its EV model, the Ford-150.
Election day 2024: Can EVs swing the vote?
This year's election is expected to be close for many reasons though it's not as clear how the election outcome will impact the EV tax credit.
When viewed through the electric vehicle lens, some 2024 swing states like PA, NC, and MI are split down the middle; while states like GA and NV show trends that generally favor electric vehicle tax incentives.
So, go electric or not? That could be an interesting question on some drivers' minds when it comes time to vote November 5.
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